The anguished cries of Hillary supporters pierced the midday calm here on Saturday, as Barack Obama confirmed that his vice presidential choice was not Clinton, who got about 18 million votes this year running against him, but rather Joe Biden, who gained the support of a few thousand caucusgoers in Iowa before dropping out of the race. (OK, I didnt personally hear any anguished cries from my work space near the Pepsi Center. But Im an empathetic guy I felt as if I could hear them.)
McCain operatives were pleased by the Biden selection, which they considered, as one said to me, a pick from weakness. Still, it complicates McCains vice presidential calculations.
The two leading G.O.P. prospects have been Tim Pawlenty, the Minnesota governor, and Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor. But with Bidens foreign policy experience as a contrast, could McCain assure voters that the young Pawlenty is ready to take over, if need be, as commander in chief? Also, Biden is a strong and experienced debater. Pawlenty is unproven. If he is the choice, there will be many anxious Republicans in the run-up to the vice presidential debate in St. Louis on Oct. 2.
Romney might match up better against Biden in debate. But its clear that the Obama-Biden campaign is moving aggressively to embrace a traditional Democratic populist economic message. Such a message will have appeal this year especially, one supposes, against a doubly multimansioned G.O.P. ticket of McCain and Romney.
If not Pawlenty or Romney, how about a woman, whose selection would presumably appeal to the aforementioned anguished Hillary supporters? Its awfully tempting for the McCain camp to revisit the possibility of tapping Meg Whitman, the former eBay C.E.O., Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, or Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska. But the first two have never run for office, and Palin has been governor for less than two years.
So whats to be done? McCain could well decide the obstacles to Pawlenty and Romney arent insuperable, and pick one of them. He could choose a different Republican governor or ex-governor, senator or congressman. Or he could decide that Obamas conventional pick of Biden allows him to seize the moment by making a bold choice. He could select the person he would really like to have by his side in the White House but whose selection would cause palpitations among many of his staffers and supporters: the independent Democratic senator from Connecticut, Joe Lieberman.
Lieberman could hold his own against Biden in a debate. He would reinforce McCains overall message of foreign policy experience and hawkishness. Hes a strong and disciplined candidate.
But he is pro-abortion rights, and having been a Democrat all his life, he has a moderately liberal voting record on lots of issues.
Now as a matter of governance, theres no reason to think this would much matter. McCain has made clear his will be a pro-life administration. And as a one-off, quasi-national-unity ticket, with Lieberman renouncing any further ambition to run for the presidency, a McCain-Lieberman administration wouldnt threaten the continuance of the G.O.P. as a pro-life party. In other areas, no one seriously thinks the policies of a McCain-Lieberman administration would be appreciably different from those, say, of a McCain-Pawlenty administration.
Would McCain-Lieberman have a better prospect of winning than the more conventional alternatives? If they could get over the early hurdles of a messy convention and an awful lot of conservative angst and anger, Ive come to think so.
Obama and Biden will try to frame the presidential race as a normal Democratic-Republican choice. If they can do that, they should win. That would be far more difficult against a McCain-Lieberman ticket. The charge that McCain would merely mean a third Bush term would also tend to fall flat. And an unorthodox country first Lieberman selection would reinforce what has been attractive about McCain, and what has allowed him to run ahead of though not yet enough ahead of the generic Republican ballot.
A Lieberman pick should help with ticket splitters. But can such a ticket hold the support of pro-lifers, conservatives and Republicans? If youre conscientiously pro-life, you will have reservations about a pro-abortion-rights V.P. If youre a proud conservative, Lieberman hasnt been one. If youre a loyal Republican, youd much prefer someone from within the ranks.
But if youre pro-life, conservative and/or Republican, you certainly dont want Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid running the country. If a McCain-Lieberman ticket is the best way to thwart that prospect, you could probably learn to live with it even perhaps to like it.
And Hillary supporters could protest Obamas glass ceiling by voting for John McCain and the Democratic Partys 2000 vice presidential nominee.
Poster Comment:
here we go....let's see if i've been right all along with my prediction of a mcCain/lieberman ticket.