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Title: Sebelius Revives Fears of ‘Bradley Effect’ With Race Comment
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URL Source: http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/0 ... dley-effect-with-race-comment/
Published: Sep 18, 2008
Author: Kathleen Sebelius
Post Date: 2008-09-18 11:11:37 by Jethro Tull
Ping List: *Obama Reality Check* Subscribe to *Obama Reality Check*
Keywords: None
Views: 311
Comments: 22
By Bill Sammon Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius has revived Democratic fears of a 60;Bradley effect61; by suggesting that some Americans who claim to support Barack Obama will end up voting against him because he is black. While campaigning for Obama in Iowa Tuesday, Sebelius was asked why the election is so close. 60;Have any of you noticed that Barack Obama is part African-American?61; the Democrat said. 60;That may be a factor. All the code language, all that doesn57;t show up in the polls. And that may be a factor for some people.61; Sebelius appeared to be alluding to the 60;Bradley effect,61; a political phenomenon in which African-American candidates fare better in opinion polls than in actual elections. The effect is named for black Democrat Tom Bradley, who lost the California governor57;s race in 1982 even though he was ahead in the polls. Currently, most polls show Obama tied with John McCain. But if there is a Bradley effect, such polls could be masking a McCain lead. 60;Obama will need a clear pre-election poll lead over McCain to win; a tie isn57;t going to do it for him, in all probability,61; said Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia57;s Center for Politics. 60;It57;s naïve to expect that there won57;t be some racial leakage on election day. 60;Some voters will have told pollsters in advance that they are voting for Obama, and maybe to some degree that was their intention,61; he added. 60;But whatever they have said in advance, they will get in the booth and be unable to vote for the black candidate. I would expect these voters to be disproportionately, but not exclusively, blue-collar, working class Democrats and Democratically-leaning Independents.61; Civil rights author Juan Williams said Obama cannot go into the November election tied with McCain in the polls if he expects to win the presidency. 60;Obama57;s got to have a buffer of 5 to 8 percentage points,61; Williams said. 60;So if you have a race in which McCain is at, you know, 41, and Obama57;s at 41, then imagine that really what you57;re looking at is McCain at 49, Obama at 41.61; Not all scholars believe in the Bradley effect. 60;In the early 1990s, there was a pronounced gap between polling and performance for black candidates of about 2.3 percentage points,61; concluded Daniel Hopkins of Harvard after studying 133 gubernatorial and Senate elections between 1989 and 2006. 60;But in the mid-1990s, that upward bias in telephone surveys disappears.61; Political analyst Michael Barone said the nature of telephone polling might explain the waning of the Bradley effect. 60;We now have these robo-polls in which you57;re not responding to a person,61; Barone said. 60;If people are reluctant to tell a live interviewer they57;re voting against a black candidate, would they have the same reluctance on a robo-poll? It57;s plausible to believe they would not. After all, it57;s a machine.61; Regardless of whether the Bradley effect manifests itself in this presidential race, some Republicans are accusing Sebelius of injecting race into the campaign. 60;Governor Sebelius57;s remarks in Iowa City today are hurtful and divisive at best,61; said Caleb Hunter, executive director of the Iowa GOP. 60;With less than 50 days to go, Democrats will continue to try and change the focus away from the issues that will decide this election.61; But Sabato said race is part and parcel of the campaign. 60;This is sensitive stuff,61; he said. 60;I keep hearing from people that the subject shouldn57;t be discussed. But that57;s ridiculous. Sebelius is just being realistic.61; Bill Sammon is Washington deputy managing editor for FOX News Channel.
Poster Comment: Well hell....we were talking about this months ago. It's about time some understand the power of PC. If the polls are close, add 5-8% to the McCain side. And that's the way it is....
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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 6.
#1. To: Jethro Tull (#0)
Slate is depressed. They stopped updating their presidential odds page. Current assorted InTrade prices: Obama: 49.4 -.3 McCain: 48.7 -.8 Biden to be withdrawn: 8.4 +.7 Palin to be withdrawn: 5.9 USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 31 Dec 2008: 20.0 -2
Funny, and this makes the Lindsay Lohan, Obama for president endorsement, all the more important.
No kidding. What a sexist party. And so they said, 'skanks but no skanks' to that child star, Miss Lohan. Hollywood loves him though. There's one notable that refers to him as Ummbama. Of course she thinks the other guys name is Moe Cane. I guess that would be the Ummpublican.
It's hard not to hate the Obama supporters. So I stopped trying.
It's hard to imagine the U.S. federation of states holding together too much longer as an intact entity, no matter what the result is in November. There is literally nothing most people in California have in common with, say, people in Alabama. Similarly, there is no common ground between, say, Vermonters and Texans. It's over. Time to split this mofo into about 12 different countries, at least.
#9. To: Sam Houston (#6)
I'm there, and frankly I think what you suggest is beginning to happen. Lots has been written about this very subject.
The Nine Nations of North America is a book written in 1981 by Joel Garreau. In it, Garreau argues that North America can be divided into nine regions, or "nations", which have distinctive economic and cultural features. He argues that conventional national and state borders are largely artificial and irrelevant, and that his "nations" provide a more accurate way of understanding the true nature of North American society. One critic complained that Garreau did not take into account bioregionalism, but instead transhumanism; however, this same critic said that he accidentally stumbled on the former due to how the regions fitted with the regions of various American Indian patterns.[1] Others have called it "a classic text on the current regionalization of North America".[2] [edit] The Nine Nations Approximate map of the Nine Nations of North America Approximate map of the Nine Nations of North America * New England (also called New Britain or Atlantica) — an expanded version including not only Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Connecticut (although omitting the Connecticut suburbs of New York City), but also the Canadian Atlantic provinces of New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland and Labrador, as well as the Gaspé Peninsula of Quebec. Capital: Boston. * The Foundry — the by-then-declining industrial areas of the northeastern United States and Great Lakes region stretching from New York City to Milwaukee, and including Chicago and Philadelphia as well as industrial Southern Ontario centering on Toronto. Capital: Detroit. * Dixie — the former Confederate States of America (today the southeastern United States) centered on Atlanta, and including most of eastern Texas to Austin. Garreau's "Dixie" also includes Kentucky (which had both Federal and Confederate governments); southern portions of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana; and the "Little Dixie" region of southeastern Oklahoma. Finally, the region also includes most of Florida, as far south as the cities of Fort Myers and Naples. Capital: Atlanta. * The Breadbasket — most of the Great Plains states and part of the Prairie provinces: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, the Dakotas, Oklahoma, most of western Missouri, western Wisconsin, eastern Colorado, parts of Illinois and Indiana, and northern Texas. Also included are some of Northern Ontario and southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Capital: Kansas City. * The Islands — The South Florida metropolitan area, the Florida Keys, the Caribbean, and parts of Venezuela. Capital: Miami. * Mexamerica — the southern and Central Valley portions of California as well as southern Arizona, the portion of Texas bordering on the Rio Grande, most of New Mexico and all of Mexico, centered on either Los Angeles or Mexico City (depending on whom you ask), which are significantly Spanish-speaking. Garreau's original book did not place all of Mexico within Mexamerica, but only Northern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula. Capital: Los Angeles. * Ecotopia — the Pacific Northwest coast west of the Cascade Range, stretching from Alaska down through coastal British Columbia, Washington state, Oregon and into California just north of Santa Barbara. Capital: San Francisco. * The Empty Quarter — most of Alaska, Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana and Colorado from Denver west, as well as the eastern portions of Oregon, California, Washington, all of Alberta and Northern Canada (including Nunavut, although not yet created at that time), northern Arizona, parts of New Mexico, and British Columbia east of the Coast Ranges. Capital: Denver. * Quebec — the primarily French-speaking province of Canada, whose legislature is called the National Assembly of Quebec, and which has held referendums on secession in 1980 and 1995, the latter of which the "separatists" lost narrowly. Capital: Quebec City.
Hear! Hear! I'd go further and say that, IMHO, any nation that gets much larger than 15 million people ceases to be able to represent the interests of its citizens. So, by that logic, I'd say the US should break into at least 30 smaller countries.
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#2. To: Tauzero (#1)
Slate is depressed.
#3. To: Jethro Tull (#2)
Funny, and this makes the Lindsay Lohan, Obama for president endorsement, all the more important.
#4. To: nikki (#3)
(Edited)
#6. To: Jethro Tull (#4)
Replies to Comment # 6. It's over. Time to split this mofo into about 12 different countries, at least.
#11. To: Sam Houston (#6)
#21. To: Sam Houston (#6)
It's over. Time to split this mofo into about 12 different countries, at least.
End Trace Mode for Comment # 6.