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War, War, War See other War, War, War Articles Title: U.S. Expects Afghan Violence to Worsen SEPTEMBER 23, 2008 U.S. Expects Afghan Violence to Worsen Commanders See Taliban Preparing Winter Offensive U.S. commanders in Afghanistan say they expect the Taliban to launch a winter offensive, a move that could bring bloodshed during a time of year that historically has been relatively peaceful. Since the U.S. invasion in 2001, violence in Afghanistan has usually tracked the country's seasons, decreasing during the harsh winter months and then resuming in the spring. This year is shaping up differently, with the U.S. picking up indications that militants who normally spend the winter months training in Pakistan are instead preparing to remain in Afghanistan, staying in position to launch attacks there. "I do think there will be an increase in violence by the enemy in order to maintain a general sense of insecurity," said Brig. Gen. Mark Milley, deputy commander of the U.S. forces in eastern Afghanistan. "The winter fighting season this year will be more violent than in previous years." If the assessments are correct, the U.S. death toll in Afghanistan -- already higher than in any previous year of the war -- could increase significantly by year end. The assessments also suggest that 2009 may be bloodier for all sides, further complicating U.S. hopes of pacifying the increasingly restive country. Barnett Rubin, an Afghanistan expert at New York University, said the violence was almost certain to spread to Pakistan, which has seen a spate of terrorist attacks in recent months, including a bombing over the weekend in Islamabad that killed at least 53 people. "There's going to be a winter offensive in both Pakistan and Afghanistan," he said. "It's not just a war in Afghanistan. It's a war in both countries." Afghanistan's security situation has deteriorated in recent months, with insurgent attacks on U.S., North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Afghan troops up 30% since last year, according to the U.S. military. There have been 127 American troops killed in Afghanistan so far this year, a record that exceeds the 117 fatalities for all of 2007. U.S. forces have responded to the Taliban attacks with air strikes on suspected militant positions in remote parts of the country. The strikes have killed dozens of civilians and strained ties between Washington and Kabul. The Bush administration's relationship with Pakistan has also suffered. Senior U.S. officials accuse Islamabad of failing to crack down on the militants running training camps in Pakistan's border areas and providing logistical support to the insurgents crossing into Afghanistan to carry out attacks. On Monday, Afghanistan's Defense Minister Abdul Rahim Wardak told reporters that his government wanted the U.S., Afghanistan and Pakistan to create a joint military force with permission to conduct operations inside both Afghanistan and Pakistan. The new force should be free to attack targets "on both sides of the border," he said. Mr. Wardak said the concept was discussed six weeks ago at a summit of senior officials from the three countries. "They say they are looking at it," Mr. Wardak said, referring to the government in Islamabad. The Afghan proposal may be a tough sell in Pakistan, where some officials are furious that the Bush administration cleared the way for U.S. forces to strike targets in Pakistan without first alerting Islamabad and authorized an increase in the number of U.S. drone missile strikes on targets inside Pakistan. The Pakistani government has ordered its troops to fire on any U.S. forces that enter the country from Afghanistan. On Monday, Pakistani officials said they had fired on two American helicopters and forced them to return to Afghanistan. U.S. officials said no such encounter took place. On the ground in Afghanistan, senior U.S. commanders say that they're seeing an improvement in the tactical skills of the Taliban fighters as a result of the training they're able to receive inside Pakistan. Gen. Milley said that Afghanistan's militants had begun attacking U.S. vehicles with roadside bombs, long a hallmark of the Iraq war. He said the Taliban had also grown more adept at mounting large-scale attacks with mortars, rockets and dozens of well-armed fighters. "It's a pretty fair estimate to say that the enemy has been reasonably well trained in a variety of training camps that are not in Afghanistan," he said. Stephen Biddle, a national security expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the Taliban have been able to take effective control of certain parts of Afghanistan, giving them the ability to sustain their fighters for longer periods of time. "They now have the resources to stay put," he said. "If they stay put, they can keep fighting." Write to Yochi J. Dreazen at yochi.dreazen@wsj.com Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread
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