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Title: Bradley Who? Here Comes the Obama Effect
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URL Source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/danie ... ho-here-comes-th_b_132987.html
Published: Oct 8, 2008
Author: Daniel Okrent
Post Date: 2008-10-08 16:29:31 by PoliticallyIncorrect
Keywords: None
Views: 285
Comments: 17
Everyone knows about the dreaded Bradley Effect: the phenomenon that leaves white voters loath to tell pollsters they won't vote for a black candidate. There's been a lot of fretting about this recently -- fretting, I find, that correlates with age: the older you are, the more likely you are to believe the Bradley Effect will turn up in this election. Here are some reasons Democrats needn't be overly worried, in ascending order of importance: 1. The event that gave the BE its name -- the 1982 California gubernatorial election, when Tom Bradley, the black mayor of Los Angeles, polled well and then lost resoundingly -- took place 26 years ago. Don't you think the world has changed a little bit since then, especially regarding tolerance? Consider a prejudice once thought to be even more intense than racial prejudice: If we've made even a quarter of the progress in racial matters that we have in issues regarding sexuality, that alone turns the Bradley Effect on its ear. 2. There are 60 million Americans of voting age who hadn't yet reached the age of eight in 1982. Don't you think their racial attitudes are different from the people who have disappeared from the voting roles in that time -- namely, their dead grandparents? 3. Tennessee, 2006: The Democratic candidate for the Senate was a black man, Harold Ford. Tennessee hadn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1990. George Bush carried the state in 2004 by a 14 point margin. Republicans ran an ad, right before Election Day, suggesting that Ford had a taste for white women. In this very red state, with a black population of only 17%, Ford lost by just 3 percentage points. More to the point, he did better in the election than in the pre-election polling. 4. One recent, ill-conceived analysis suggests that 6% of people polled will not admit that they will not vote for a black man. Ask yourself: even if this were accurate, how many of them would be likely to vote for a liberal Democrat anyway? How many of them live in states that McCain is going to carry no matter what, like Texas or Mississippi? How many live in states that Obama is going to carry no matter what, like New York or California? 5. Finally, and most importantly, isn't there another shoe to drop on this issue -- namely, the number of people who will vote for Obama because he's black? I'm not talking about white voters who think it's time for a black president, or who want to feel good about their own racial attitudes -- those are Democratic voters in any case. I'm talking about the increased turnout among black voters. In recent elections, 51% of registered blacks voters showed up at the polls. Do you think that number will be up 10%? 20%? More? So do I. And that's just registered black voters. Registration of new black voters in states like Virginia and North Carolina has been one of the Obama organization's most notable accomplishments. As a result, I'm looking for the debut of the Obama Effect -- a level of increased participation among black voters that may change the electoral map for years to come.
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#1. To: PoliticallyIncorrect (#0)
It's the second mouse that gets the cheese
I am no fan of Barack Obama's so my comments are not in defense, but this story has been around from the inception of his candidacy. Whether true or not, it has proven to be legless, as has the Birth Certificate matter.
i agree. imo, obama is and has been the selection from the getgo. it is the dems' turn, with him at the helm, to further the long planned demise of a sovereign America.
Do You Know What Freedom Really Means? Freedom4um.com
Obama : 77.0 +6.9 ...Both methods yielded similar results, which support the previous findings; that is, of all modern human samples, sub-Saharan Africans again exhibit the closest phenetic similarity to various African Plio-Pleistocene hominins... Good, neither am I. As we get nearer to the election, more and more people will be lurking here for information. Because the MSM has not given these stories "legs", it is our responsibility to try to do so. My posts are for the benefit and enlightenment of the lurkers. I was a Ron Paul supporter. I donated my time and money to his candidacy. When he lost, I had to accept the situation and make some hard choices and ask some hard questions What would the democrats do with control of the Presidency and the Congress? What would obama (who has a worse record on the 2nd Amendment than Shumer) do in reguard to the massive and sweeping gun contol legislation that will certinly come out of Congress? Are taxes going to go up under this new regime? How much? I've heard from reliable sources that the Dems want the long term capital gains tax to go from 15% to 40% What about the VP? Biden has been nothing but a silver tonged proponent of socialism in the Senate. Do I want him as President? I voted for Michael Badnarik in 2004. I didn't see Bush or Kerry making much difference primarily because the Republicans controlled Congress. This time it's different
It's the second mouse that gets the cheese
Nazm, Aei Khuda Aei Karsazo Jalsa Salan Uk 2008 Part 12 And they write innumerable books; being too vain and distracted for silence: seeking every one after his own elevation, and dodging his emptiness. - T. S. Eliot
It's the second mouse that gets the cheese
i'm pinging LACUMO to your post on this thread as you two are in agreement here. the difference is, he's going to write in Ron Paul anyway. you've decided to use a different tact understanding that you feel you're being forced to choose the lesser of evils and hoping for some degree of gridlock.
Do You Know What Freedom Really Means? Freedom4um.com
And they write innumerable books; being too vain and distracted for silence: seeking every one after his own elevation, and dodging his emptiness. - T. S. Eliot
Legalize Marijuna!
And they write innumerable books; being too vain and distracted for silence: seeking every one after his own elevation, and dodging his emptiness. - T. S. Eliot
you did it! star pupil. ;)
Do You Know What Freedom Really Means? Freedom4um.com
Yeah, and he's a eftard too, just like Obama. And it has nothing to do with color. If they were white they would still be just as worthless and shiftless.
Liberty is not a means to a higher political end. It is itself the highest political end. There you go again! So you've heard from reliable sources. Well fill us in on these reliable sources Can't you get it through your little pumpkin that the taxes have come down under bush for the rich and have steadily gone up for us little folk. Let's be honest. The bills this asshole has made in the past 7 plus years are coming home to roost. Why just last week he forced our congressional critters to tax the hell out of us with that 700 billion dollar The past 35 to 40 years has seen the working man's wages go down and his tax burden soar. All the while the rich have been getting one tax break after another simply because they now control the congress critters. Every time we hear of a tax break for the workingman and or a wage increase such as the minimum wage increase, the rich cry that their politicans are trying to redistribute wealth. This is insane. How much fucking money do these rich bastards need anyway? They already have so much money they are controlling everything anyhow. The love of money sure is evil. As for obanger taking our guns if elected, I would welcome that. I am so sick and tired of all the big mouthed fake patriots on here and everywhere else claiming they will get my gun when they pry it from my dead fingers. Truth is there isn't 1/10 of 1% who would defend their right to own guns with their life. This makes all those big mouths pussies. Not worthy of being called anything else. If they are going to take our guns, the sooner they do it the sooner we can acclimate ourselves to the factwe are slaves and we deserve it for being nothing more than cowardly big mouthed chickens. I know you fit in here somewhere. Your argument that you are for gridlock is pitiful. I'm not defending the demonwits when I say this, but for over 40 years they controlled the entire three branches of government and even though they passed laws that helped get us to where we are at today, in that 40 year span they didn't do as much damage as bushkie has in 7 plus years. The worst of it in the past 1 1/2 years with the demon wits in control of two houses of government. Shows how well gridlock works. When all is lost, I hope you will be man enough to apologize to those of us that tried to educate you on having principles that truly are honorable. Instead you only have convictions and isn't it ironic that the first part of your convictions is where we get the word CONVICT.
Where do I start? You sound like an overpaid unskilled union guy that was outsourced. Your rant also reeks of class warfare/envy. You're not a real Libertarian. you're a lefty anarchist Don't believe me about the planned capital gains tax increase? Too bad, I don't reveal my sources. The minimum wage is a scam used by unions to bleed more money out of their contracts that are usually tied to it. No real Libertarian would be in favor of it. Again, you're no Libertarian. How do you define "rich"? How much money is "too much" What should happen to people like Bill Gates who have "too much" money? Figures Speak for yourself (I'm sure you are) Nope,I'm nobody's slave, I'm 100% free. I no longer have to work (but sometimes I still do because I enjoy it) and have very few non portable assets. You ain't seen nothing yet. wait until you see the obama/congress love fest that's coming to town. I'm sure you'll enjoy it. When all is lost, I'll be sipping a drink in Margaritaville. I might be feeling sorry for those who didn't have the discipline, will and determination to truly prepare or I might not. What will you be doing? I noticed that you wrote your rant during business hours. Does your boss know that you do personal stuff on company time, or are you unemployed.
It's the second mouse that gets the cheese
I have no boss. I am extremely wealthy but not in the same league as bill gates. I have more money than you could ever hope for. I have enough that if I thought like you I could be a corrupting influence. I have given more money away than you could ever fathom. I can tell you that every cent was earned and I never ever made a nickle on the back of someone else. I wrote the book on sharing and let me tell you it is the most beautiful thing. I couldn't have made one cent on my own. I owe it all to my loyal employees and my most gracious God loving friends. Had I thought like you, I would still be penniless and miserable. Have you ever heard it is better to give than receive? Probably not but that is definitely true. The secret to my success is so overwhelming and yet so simple you couldn't grasp it. Not to keep you in the dark and certainly not to use my method(s) to make even more money, I will tell you straight out that my guiding principle is honesty. How does that grab you? I'm going to assume you are a male for a moment;ok? You wear pants as I do and you put them on one leg at a time unless you got more than two legs. Having assumed and assumed correctly, there is nothing that makes you better than me, nor I better than you. When we try to be someone we are not or try and controll others especially to our way of thinking, we become obnoxious at best. You just stated you have sources but you can't divulge them. My reply; phoney cop out. I hate phoney people. Need I repeat myself? You may not realize how much you harm your own character by your childish behavior you have displayed on this forum the past few days. You claim obanger will lead us into oblivion while mcinsane is the messiah. Do you even stop to think how many people (voters) you have turned off; lost even by your inconsiderate rants and ravings? I'm trying not to sound like a tv evangelist, but you must stop, denounce, and even repent for your selfish wicked ways. Let me give you some stellar advice that will serve you well in th next 3 to 4weeks. Stay off of the computer entirely after you use it to make apologies to those you have offended including me. Vote if you feel it will make a difference and keep your selection to yourself. Most of us on here realize the precarious position the traitor candidaters are putting us in along with the help of those of you are shilling for them.If that candidate you vote for doesn't speak about and follow our Constitution everyday, he or she is bogus. Are you bogus? Grow some balls for a change and above all, change that name. It doesn't fit you. May I suggest the name Sue.
Another long winded, condescending, rambling reply. I'm sure you're posting from your villa in Switzerland. You're no Libertarian, just an arrogant BS artist.
It's the second mouse that gets the cheese
#2. To: Flintlock (#1)
#3. To: PoliticallyIncorrect, Flintlock (#2)
(Edited)
#4. To: PoliticallyIncorrect (#0)
McCain : 24.4 -5.2
Ancient teeth and modern human origins: An expanded comparison of African Plio-Pleistocene and recent world dental samples, Journal of Human Evolution Volume 45, Issue 2, August 2003, Pages 113-144
#5. To: PoliticallyIncorrect (#2)
I am no fan of Barack Obama's
but this story has been around from the inception of his candidacy. Whether true or not, it has proven to be legless, as has the Birth Certificate matter.
#6. To: Flintlock (#5)
Are taxes going to go up under this new regime? How much? I've heard from reliable sources that the Dems want the long term capital gains tax to go from 15% to 40%
#7. To: Dakmar (#6)
#8. To: Flintlock, LACUMO (#5)
(Edited)
I was a Ron Paul supporter. I donated my time and money to his candidacy. When he lost, I had to accept the situation and make some hard choices and ask some hard questions
#9. To: Flintlock (#7)
#10. To: christine (#8)
#11. To: christine (#3)
#12. To: Cynicom (#11)
#13. To: PoliticallyIncorrect (#0)
3. Tennessee, 2006: The Democratic candidate for the Senate was a black man, Harold Ford.
Lord Acton
#14. To: Flintlock (#5)
Are taxes going to go up under this new regime? How much? I've heard from reliable sources that the Dems want the long term capital gains tax to go from 15% to 40%
sherlock, er flintlock. Name them sources. bailout robbery of the taxpayers.
#15. To: LACUMO (#14)
So you've heard from reliable sources.
a wage increase such as the minimum wage increase, the rich cry that their politicans are trying to redistribute wealth.
How much fucking money do these rich bastards need anyway? They already have so much money
As for obanger taking our guns if elected, I would welcome that.
If they are going to take our guns, the sooner they do it the sooner we can acclimate ourselves to the factwe are slaves and we deserve it for being nothing more than cowardly big mouthed chickens.
I know you fit in here somewhere.
in that 40 year span they didn't do as much damage as bushkie has in 7 plus years.
When all is lost, I hope you will be man enough to apologize to those of us that tried to educate you.
#16. To: Flintlock (#15)
I noticed that you wrote your rant during business hours. Does your boss know that you do personal stuff on company time, or are you unemployed.I noticed that you wrote your rant during business hours. Does your boss know that you do personal stuff on company time, or are you unemployed.
#17. To: LACUMO (#16)
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