See other (s)Elections Articles
Title: Electline: Early but Final Projections-McCain 270, Obama 268-Dem Senate +4, Dem House +8.
Source:
RMN
URL Source: http://www.rumormillnews.com/cgi-bin/forum.cgi?read=134839
Published: Oct 29, 2008
Author: ThomasB.Fagan
Post Date: 2008-10-29 23:13:25 by OliviaFNewton
Keywords: Obama, McCain
Views: 373
Comments: 11
Since I have to be on the road the next four days, unfortunately I have to post my final projections four days early and in an abbreviated form. I hope to post again Monday night before the polls close. However, giving you my best look without benefit of the only real time the polls mean anything: the last week, let me just say the recent financial crisis has hurt John McCain by about 4 points. This would be a tossup now with McCain surging if the meltdown hadn't occurred. I am forced to guess by historical standards that the following will occur over the next four days: some Americans will realize the Democrats are primarily to blame for the fiscal problems; in any case, McCain's plan for recovery is better than Obama's (for these 2 reasons I give McCain a one point gain); There is a "Bradley effect" of two points, and the undecideds (about 12 per cent of the vote) will break 2-1 for the underdog. Since the traditional polls show Obama with about a 4.5 point lead, all this adds up to a 2.5 point McCain win. State-by-state (below) shows a 270-268 McCain scrape. Colorado and Virginia are the keys. If either candidate sweeps both, he will win. A split makes for a lot of interesting scenarios. On the general scene, I will say the GOP will own the last week. Any Republican within 5 points in a congressional or gubernatorial race should win. Therefore, I predict a Democrat gain of 8 seats in the House and 4 in the Senate. The Dem Senate gain might be as low as 2 if Sununu of New Hampshire and Stevens of Alaska pull out what should be cliffhangers. Will continue essay on the not too distant national socialist cycle after the election. A real possibility, in either case but especially with Obama, is that we are electing a Kerensky this time. ALABAMA:McCain 26. ALASKA: McCain by 24. ARIZONA: McCain by 14. ARKANSAS: McCain by 13. CALIFORNIA: Obama by 12. COLORADO: Obama by 1.5. CONNECTICUT: Obama by 14. DELAWARE: Obama by 16. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA: Obama by 83. FLORIDA: McCain by 2. GEORGIA: McCain by 7.5. HAWAII: Obama by 19.5. IDAHO: McCain by 41. ILLINOIS: Obama by 18.5. INDIANA: McCain by 7. IOWA: Obama by 6.5. KANSAS: McCain by 22.5. KENTUCKY: McCain by 15.5. LOUISIANA: McCain by 17. MAINE: Obama by 7.5. MARYLAND: Obama by 12.5. MASSACHUSETTS: Obama by 18. MICHIGAN: Obama by 6.5. MINNESOTA: Obama by 4.5. MISSISSIPPI: McCain by 15. MISSOURI: McCain by 3.5. MONTANA: McCain by 11. NEBRASKA: McCain by 22.5. NEVADA: McCain by 3. NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama by 1. NEW JERSEY: Obama by 7. NEW MEXICO: McCain by 1.5. NEW YORK: Obama by 18. NORTH CAROLINA: McCain by 6.5. NORTH DAKOTA: McCain by 11.5. OHIO: McCain by 2.5. OKLAHOMA: McCain by 33.5. OREGON: Obama by 7. PENNSYLVANIA: Obama by 2. RHODE ISLAND: Obama by 17. SOUTH CAROLINA: McCain by 22. SOUTH DAKOTA: McCain by 16. TENNESSEE: McCain by 18. TEXAS: McCain by 16.5. UTAH: McCain by 39. VERMONT: Obama by 17. VIRGINIA: McCain by 2. WASHINGTON: Obama by 7.5. WEST VIRGINIA: McCain by 11. WISCONSIN: Obama by 2. WYOMING: McCain by 27.5. FINAL: McCain 270; Obama 268.
Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest
#1. To: OliviaFNewton (#0)
LOL !! Freakin' racists !
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.”—Samuel Adams
Mayor McCheese 2008!
And they write innumerable books; being too vain and distracted for silence: seeking every one after his own elevation, and dodging his emptiness. - T. S. Eliot
Freakin' racists ! Obama won't get much more than 99% of the "black vote." I say that with the belief that some black people who actually know who and what Obama is will not vote for him. I very seriously doubt that he will get the votes of Walter Williams and J.J. Johnson for instance. But there aren't a lot of Walter Williams and J.J. Johnson's in this world.
Liberty is not a means to a higher political end. It is itself the highest political end. Freakin' racists ! Apparently it's not the 'time of the season, for luving'. 'what's your name?' 'who's your daddy?' Ha!
Haaaahahaha! FoodOphiles !!
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.”—Samuel Adams
I've been quizzing 'brothas' and 'sistas' fo O-bama - and almost all of them, when I ask what specifically is the primary reason they support him - cite 'race'. Pa-thetic
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.”—Samuel Adams
'what's your name?' 'who's your daddy?' Ha! Honk if ya hate 'whitey' !
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.”—Samuel Adams
Billy Jack 2008!
And they write innumerable books; being too vain and distracted for silence: seeking every one after his own elevation, and dodging his emptiness. - T. S. Eliot
Pa-thetic Of course it is pathetic. It would be like me voting for McCain just because he is white. Ain't gonna happen but then I am not a racist. Won't vote for Obummer either because he isn't even eligible to run for President (and the fact that he is a bit to the left of Stalin doesn't help either).
Liberty is not a means to a higher political end. It is itself the highest political end. You're obviously wearing a hood whilst you type. *< 8 )
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.”—Samuel Adams
messages.finance.yahoo.co...01&mid=216901&tof=1&frt=2 For all intensive purposes, Obama has won. 1 minute ago Lookie here. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/... 259 projected electoral votes that are solid Obama, another 52 leaning, and 85 tossup. The odds are 9:1 Obama and have been paid out in some places. The election is over unless commits a huge huge huge gaffe.
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA: Obama by 83
#2. To: Rotara, Jethro Tull (#1)
#3. To: Rotara (#1)
LOL !!
Lord Acton
#4. To: Rotara (#1)
LOL !!
#5. To: Dakmar (#2)
#6. To: James Deffenbach (#3)
Obama won't get much more than 99% of the "black vote." I say that with the belief that some black people who actually know who and what Obama is will not vote for him. I very seriously doubt that he will get the votes of Walter Williams and J.J. Johnson for instance. But there aren't a lot of Walter Williams and J.J. Johnson's in this world.
#7. To: OliviaFNewton (#4)
Apparently it's not the 'time of the season, for luving'.
#8. To: Rotara, lodwick (#5)
We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality -- judiciously, as you will -- we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do
#9. To: Rotara (#6)
I've been quizzing 'brothas' and 'sistas' fo O-bama - and almost all of them, when I ask what specifically is the primary reason they support him - cite 'race'.
Lord Acton
#10. To: James Deffenbach (#9)
Ain't gonna happen but then I am not a racist. Won't vote for Obummer either because he isn't even eligible to run for President (and the fact that he is a bit to the left of Stalin doesn't help either).
#11. To: James Deffenbach (#9)
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest