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(s)Elections See other (s)Elections Articles Title: Electline: Early but Final Projections-McCain 270, Obama 268-Dem Senate +4, Dem House +8. Since I have to be on the road the next four days, unfortunately I have to post my final projections four days early and in an abbreviated form. I hope to post again Monday night before the polls close. However, giving you my best look without benefit of the only real time the polls mean anything: the last week, let me just say the recent financial crisis has hurt John McCain by about 4 points. This would be a tossup now with McCain surging if the meltdown hadn't occurred. I am forced to guess by historical standards that the following will occur over the next four days: some Americans will realize the Democrats are primarily to blame for the fiscal problems; in any case, McCain's plan for recovery is better than Obama's (for these 2 reasons I give McCain a one point gain); There is a "Bradley effect" of two points, and the undecideds (about 12 per cent of the vote) will break 2-1 for the underdog. Since the traditional polls show Obama with about a 4.5 point lead, all this adds up to a 2.5 point McCain win. State-by-state (below) shows a 270-268 McCain scrape. Colorado and Virginia are the keys. If either candidate sweeps both, he will win. A split makes for a lot of interesting scenarios. On the general scene, I will say the GOP will own the last week. Any Republican within 5 points in a congressional or gubernatorial race should win. Therefore, I predict a Democrat gain of 8 seats in the House and 4 in the Senate. The Dem Senate gain might be as low as 2 if Sununu of New Hampshire and Stevens of Alaska pull out what should be cliffhangers. Will continue essay on the not too distant national socialist cycle after the election. A real possibility, in either case but especially with Obama, is that we are electing a Kerensky this time. ALABAMA:McCain 26. ALASKA: McCain by 24. ARIZONA: McCain by 14. ARKANSAS: McCain by 13. CALIFORNIA: Obama by 12. COLORADO: Obama by 1.5. CONNECTICUT: Obama by 14. DELAWARE: Obama by 16. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA: Obama by 83. FLORIDA: McCain by 2. GEORGIA: McCain by 7.5. HAWAII: Obama by 19.5. IDAHO: McCain by 41. ILLINOIS: Obama by 18.5. INDIANA: McCain by 7. IOWA: Obama by 6.5. KANSAS: McCain by 22.5. KENTUCKY: McCain by 15.5. LOUISIANA: McCain by 17. MAINE: Obama by 7.5. MARYLAND: Obama by 12.5. MASSACHUSETTS: Obama by 18. MICHIGAN: Obama by 6.5. MINNESOTA: Obama by 4.5. MISSISSIPPI: McCain by 15. MISSOURI: McCain by 3.5. MONTANA: McCain by 11. NEBRASKA: McCain by 22.5. NEVADA: McCain by 3. NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama by 1. NEW JERSEY: Obama by 7. NEW MEXICO: McCain by 1.5. NEW YORK: Obama by 18. NORTH CAROLINA: McCain by 6.5. NORTH DAKOTA: McCain by 11.5. OHIO: McCain by 2.5. OKLAHOMA: McCain by 33.5. OREGON: Obama by 7. PENNSYLVANIA: Obama by 2. RHODE ISLAND: Obama by 17. SOUTH CAROLINA: McCain by 22. SOUTH DAKOTA: McCain by 16. TENNESSEE: McCain by 18. TEXAS: McCain by 16.5. UTAH: McCain by 39. VERMONT: Obama by 17. VIRGINIA: McCain by 2. WASHINGTON: Obama by 7.5. WEST VIRGINIA: McCain by 11. WISCONSIN: Obama by 2. WYOMING: McCain by 27.5. FINAL: McCain 270; Obama 268.
Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread Top Page Up Full Thread Page Down Bottom/Latest Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 7.
#1. To: OliviaFNewton (#0)
LOL !! Freakin' racists !
Freakin' racists ! Apparently it's not the 'time of the season, for luving'. 'what's your name?' 'who's your daddy?' Ha!
'what's your name?' 'who's your daddy?' Ha! Honk if ya hate 'whitey' !
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