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(s)Elections See other (s)Elections Articles Title: Poll: Dead heats in 2 key swing states Barack Obama and John McCain are evenly matched in the swing states of North Carolina and Missouri, though Obama is strongly outpacing McCain in two of those states’ crucial battleground counties, according to new Politico/InsiderAdvantage polls. In North Carolina, Obama and McCain were tied with 48 percent of the vote. Only 3 percent of voters in the state remain undecided. In Missouri, McCain led Obama 50 percent to 47 percent, an edge that was within the margin of error. Voters in North Carolina’s Wake County, however, part of the politically competitive Research Triangle area, chose Obama by a solid 53 percent to 39 percent margin. That represented a considerable improvement over Obama’s showing in Politico’s first survey of Wake, taken October 9, when he led McCain by a margin of 50 percent to 44 percent. In Missouri’s St. Louis County, which includes the St. Louis suburbs but not the city itself, Obama racked up an imposing 17-point lead – similar to his wide lead in politically competitive Wake County. The Illinois senator took 55 percent of the vote in St. Louis County, compared with 38 percent for McCain. See Also * Cover this! Inside the nastiest ’08 rumors * Best lines, worst gaffes of campaign * Presidential ad picks and pans McCain’s ability to break even against Obama in these two states, despite the Democrat’s strong performance in suburban and urban areas suggests that the Arizona senator is drawing strong support from the less densely populated areas in these states, said InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery. “I think what’s happened is, the less populated areas of these states are coming in heavily for McCain,” Towery said, adding that Obama’s performance in St. Louis County was “good, but it’s not great.” “It’s good, but it’s not overwhelming,” Towery explained. “And that’s in one of the more sophisticated, urban locations in Missouri.” In 2004, Sen. John F. Kerry defeated George W. Bush in St. Louis County by 54 percent to 45 percent. But in Politico’s polling, Obama led by an even wider margin, thanks to support from a diverse electoral coalition. The Democratic nominee posted strong leads among voters of all age groups in St. Louis County, and bested McCain among both men and women. Though male voters typically tend to break for Republican candidates, Obama was statistically tied with McCain among this group, taking 48 percent compared with the Republican’s 46 percent. Among women, Obama had a dramatic advantage of 60 percent to 32 percent, accounting in large part for his wide lead in the county. The only sizable demographic group where McCain bested Obama was white voters, among whom McCain led by a statistically meaningless margin of 47 percent to 46 percent. Statewide, though, McCain narrowly led Obama by taking a significant lead among men, almost eliminating Obama’s advantage with women and opening up a more substantial edge among white voters. McCain led Obama among men by 10 points, 54 percent to 44 percent, and trailed among women by just three points. White voters statewide preferred McCain by a 7-point gap, 52 percent to 45 percent. Towery acknowledged that the poll showed a closer-than-expected race among black Missourians – Obama took a lower-than-usual 65 percent of the group – and said that if African-Americans ultimately vote for Obama by the huge margin analysts expect, “it will make the race closer.”
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#2. To: Hayek Fan (#0)
The chance of a McCain victory is why Bush brought home troops back from Iraq.
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