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Title: The Great Awakening: Boomers, Your Crisis Has Arrived (Part 1 of 3)
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URL Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/119 ... crisis-has-arrived-part-1-of-3
Published: Feb 11, 2009
Author: http://seekingalpha.com/article/119927-t
Post Date: 2009-02-11 10:26:26 by tom007
Keywords: None
Views: 175
Comments: 16
The Great Awakening: Boomers, Your Crisis Has Arrived (Part 1 of 3) by: James Quinn February 11, 2009 | about stocks: SPY James Quinn "There is a mysterious cycle in human events. To some generations, much is given. Of other generations, much is expected. This Generation has a rendezvous with destiny." Franklin Roosevelt – 1936 President Roosevelt was correct. The generation he was speaking to was already dealing with the worst financial crisis in the history of the United States, the Great Depression. By 1945, over 400,000 of this generation had lost their lives. Another 600,000 men were wounded. Much was expected and much was sacrificed. Every generation has a rendezvous with destiny. The generation that won World War II passed the ultimate test and proceeded to produce the next generation, the Baby Boom Generation. Their rendezvous with destiny is underway. Will it be a rendezvous with history that results in World War III, the collapse of the Great American Republic, dictatorship, or a return to the original Constitutional principles upon which this country was founded? Many of you are probably thinking the idea of WW III, collapse or dictatorship is crazy. I’d respond with the wisdom of Kramer from the classic Seinfeld show. Jerry: "Oh you're crazy" Kramer: "Am I? Or am I so sane that you just blew your mind?" Jerry: "It's impossible" Kramer: "Is it? Or is it so possible your head is spinning like a top?" Jerry: "It can't be" Kramer: "Can't it? Or is your entire world just crashing down all around you?" As a student of history I’m drawn to the concept of cycles. It is comforting to think that history has recurring patterns and a natural rhythm. Trying to figure out why the major events in history occurred is complex, challenging and fascinating. When I read an updated 1997 article by Doug Casey in December on John Mauldin’s site called Foundations of Crisis, I was blown away. Mr. Casey had read the book The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe and made some forecasts of what would happen in the next few years. They were eerily accurate, including an airliner being purposefully crashed into a government building to trigger a crisis. After reading this article I’ve been trying to wrap my arms around the implications of their theory and the possible consequences for the United States. I know that an individual can learn from the past. I’ve always thought that poet George Santayana’s quote, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it", is profound and worth studying. The crucial issue is whether societies as a whole are capable of learning from the past or are they condemned to the inevitable cycle of history. Can an individual change the course of history? Was World War II inevitable, even if Adolph Hitler had been killed during World War I? Is there anything that can be done to avert the cyclical crisis that seems to arrive on a consistent basis throughout history? Is our destiny already preordained? Mr. Strauss and Mr. Howe wrote the following words in 1997: Based on historical patterns, America will hit a once-in-a-century national crisis within the decade...'like winter,' the crisis or 'fourth turning' cannot be averted. It will last 20 years or so and bring hardship and upheavals similar to previous fourth turnings, such as the American Revolution, the Civil War, the Great Depression and World War II. The fourth turning is a perilous time because the result could be a new 'golden age' for America or the beginning of the end. It all will begin with a 'sudden spark' that catalyzes a crisis mood around the year 2005. I don’t have a preconceived notion of our country’s destiny, but I’m getting a bad feeling about the track we are on. The last thing in the world I want to see is my three boys being forced into a war caused by a bunch of clueless 60 year old political hack morons in Washington DC fulfilling their destiny to cause the once in a century national crisis. Based on the foolish actions of most politicians in Washington over the last thirty years, I fear for the future of our country. I don’t think the politicians in Washington comprehend the state of affairs. I sense the mood of the country turning. Fear, anger and disillusionment are the prevalent themes. Change is coming, but it is not the change that Barack Obama campaigned for. It will be forced upon us by circumstances beyond any one person’s control. While we are hurtling towards our summit with destiny, Congress continues its path of pork barrel spending, short term solutions, party politics, and condemning our children and grandchildren to a lower standard of living. The “leaders” of this country are using the tried and true method of using fear to ram through their $900 billion tax on future generations. President Bush used the same fear tactics to launch his invasion of Iraq. I see a similar success story with the coming stimulus package. Maybe the coming crisis will ultimately lead to Great Leaders rising to the occasion. THE FOURTH TURNING Strauss and Howe believe that history is marked by 80 to 100 year cycles which match the lifespan of most human beings. These cycles are discernible by four generations of 20 to 25 years that show remarkable consistency over history. I’m sure this theory will anger the individualists out there. They are not saying that everyone within a generation acts alike, but are shaped by joint experiences and time period in history. According to Strauss and Howe: Turnings last about 20 years and always arrive in the same order. Four of them make up the cycle of history, which is about the length of a long human life. The first turning is a High, a period of confident expansion as a new order becomes established after the old has been dismantled. Next comes an Awakening, a time of rebellion against the now-established order, when spiritual exploration becomes the norm. Then comes an Unraveling, an increasingly troubled era of strong individualism that surmounts increasingly fragmented institutions. Last comes the Fourth Turning, an era of upheaval, a Crisis in which society redefines its very nature and purpose. They are able to trace these turnings back to 1500 with remarkable consistency. They have broken U.S. history into the following cycles of history: Revolutionary Cycle (1701-1791), Civil War Cycle (1792-1859), Great Power Cycle (1860-1942), and the Millennial Cycle (1943-2???). Within these cycles are four distinct generations, that have a consistent persona because their parents had similar views, they listened to the same music, read the same books, were taught the same curriculum, were bombarded with the same marketing messages, and experienced the same set of unique experiences. Even though every Baby Boomer is not alike, the sheer size of this generation of 76 million people has left a dramatic imprint on history. The shared experiences of this cohort are clearly visible as they have marched through the cycle of history. The four typical generations within a cycle as described by Strauss and Howe are: Prophet/Idealist A Prophet (or Idealist) generation is born during a High, spends its rising adult years during an Awakening, spends midlife during an Unraveling, and spends old age in a Crisis. Prophetic leaders have been cerebral and principled, summoners of human sacrifice, wagers of righteous wars. Early in life, few saw combat in uniform. Late in life, most prophets come to be revered as much for their words as for their deeds. Nomad/Reactive A Nomad (or Reactive) generation is born during an Awakening, spends its rising adult years during an Unraveling, spends midlife during a Crisis, and spends old age in a new High. Nomadic leaders have been cunning, hard-to-fool realists, taciturn warriors who prefer to meet problems and adversaries one-on-one. Hero/Civic A Hero (or Civic) generation is born during an Unraveling, spends its rising adult years during a Crisis, spends midlife during a High, and spends old age in an Awakening. Heroic leaders are considered to have been vigorous and rational institution-builders, busy and competent in old age. All of them entering midlife were aggressive advocates of technological progress, economic prosperity, social harmony, and public optimism. Artist/Adaptive An Artist (or Adaptive) generation is born during a Crisis, spends its rising adult years in a new High, spends midlife in an Awakening, and spends old age in an Unraveling. Artistic leaders have been advocates of fairness and the politics of inclusion, irrepressible in the wake of failure. This concept of 100 year cycles consisting of four generations is very logical to me. It all seems so theoretical and quaint until you realize that if they are right, we have just entered The Fourth Turning, a period of upheaval, crisis and enormous societal and possibly worldwide change. This is not a normal cyclical recession and bear market. There are much larger forces at work. Washington politicians are so consumed with their short-term election politics, power plays, enrichment of supporters, and letting lobbyists write our laws, they are incapable of seeing the real gathering storm that is about to engulf them. They go about their day to day horse trading and fooling the public with rhetoric, while a crisis of epic proportions is looming just over the horizon. 100 YEARS TO LIVE The recent song by the group Five for Fighting called 100 Years reflects the 100 year cycle that all humans live through. 15 there's still time for you Time to buy and time to lose 15, there's never a wish better than this When you only got 100 years to live I'm 33 for a moment Still the man, but you see I'm a they A kid on the way A family on my mind I'm 45 for a moment The sea is high And I'm heading into a crisis Chasing the years of my life The lyrics heading into a crisis couldn’t be truer today. We are only on this earth for 100 years. Why shouldn’t every person want to leave the earth a better place than they were born into? Instead, the world has periods of advancement and periods of regression, periods of peace and periods of war, periods of awakening and periods of crisis. The last 150 years in American history as segmented by Strauss and Howe is charted below. Each generation experiences the four turnings at a different time in their lives. An appreciation of past turnings may give us clues to what will befall our country in the next 20 years. See chart at http://seekingalpha.com/article/119927-the-great-awakening-boomers-your-crisis-has-arrived-part-1-of-3
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#1. To: All (#0)
If any one here disagrees with this I would be surprised.
"Satan / Cheney in "08" I've got two boys of draft age. We are locked and loaded, and will shoot any feds on sight if they try to draft them into their illegal and murderous wars.
Count on it to be a just war sanctioned by GOD himself and the enemy is be Satan. It always is.
"Satan / Cheney in "08" In the 1930s no one wanted war. Yet in 1941 all of a sudden fighting and dying for this country became a patriotic duty. Anyone that protested was a slacker and a traitor. This will happen again.
Our rulers manage to find willing cannon fodder. Why would they bother with a draft and risk Vietnam-era type political backlash when there are plenty of people foolish enough to think that waging war against the next innocent country our govt' wants to destroy is their "patriotic duty?"
I'm already a slacker and a traitor to this FN so-called government.
Damn, I'm in, we gonna fight them damn Jews.
The next war they start might present the opportunity needed to extinguish their flame.
4um Traitor You might be right, there are an awfully lot of dumb f*ck Americans.
30 (THIRTY) years ?? LOL
4um Traitor By design.
4um Traitor We are locked and loaded, and will shoot any feds on sight if they try to draft them into their illegal and murderous wars. Ain't NObody gettin' mine either.
Law Enforcement Against Prohibition You think the people of this country exist to provide you with position. I think your position exists to provide those people with freedom.~~William Wallace ALAS, BABYLON
I don't blame a single patriot that gets their families the fluck out of here because what's coming down the pipe is going to be F-U-G-L-Y.
4um Traitor I don't blame a single patriot that gets their families the fluck out of here because what's coming down the pipe is going to be F-U-G-L-Y. The sheeple have no idea what is about to happen. Not much time left.
Not much time left. F**kin' sucks donkey. Like a hurricane that you know is coming ashore, we've been tracking this for a long damn time. Not much else I have to add. Vaya con Dios amigo
4um Traitor Ata boy. The aknowlagement of a good job or deed of a male Bob: "I just felt that chicks tits!" Jack: "Ata boy, Bob" http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=ata+boy
but I’m getting a bad feeling about the track we are on. The last thing in the world I want to see is my three boys being forced into a war caused by a bunch of clueless 60 year old political hack morons in Washington DC fulfilling their destiny to cause the once in a century national crisis. Based on the foolish actions of most politicians in Washington over the last thirty years, I fear for the future of our country.
#2. To: tom007 (#1)
The last thing in the world I want to see is my three boys being forced into a war
#3. To: Lysander_Spooner (#2)
#4. To: Lysander_Spooner (#2)
I've got two boys of draft age.
#5. To: Lysander_Spooner (#2)
#6. To: Cynicom (#4)
#7. To: tom007 (#3)
the enemy is be Satan
#8. To: Rupert_Pupkin (#5)
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.”—Samuel Adams
#9. To: Rupert_Pupkin (#5)
#10. To: tom007 (#1)
Based on the foolish actions of most politicians in Washington over the last thirty years, I fear for the future of our country.
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.”—Samuel Adams
#11. To: Lysander_Spooner (#9)
You might be right, there are an awfully lot of dumb f*ck Americans.
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.”—Samuel Adams
#12. To: Lysander_Spooner (#2)
(Edited)
I've got two boys of draft age.
"Corporation: An entity created for the legal protection of its human parasites, whose sole purpose is profit and self-perpetuation." ~~ IndieTx
#13. To: IndieTX (#12)
Ain't NObody gettin' mine either.
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.”—Samuel Adams
#14. To: Rotara, IndieTX (#13)
Ain't NObody gettin' mine either.
#15. To: TwentyTwelve (#14)
The sheeple have no idea what is about to happen.
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.”—Samuel Adams
#16. To: IndieTX (#12)
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