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Title: Where's bin Laden? Science may hold the answer
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URL Source: http://www.usatoday.com/tech/scienc ... -geography_N.htm?se=yahoorefer
Published: Feb 17, 2009
Author: Dan Vergano
Post Date: 2009-02-17 14:49:45 by Jethro Tull
Keywords: None
Views: 153
Comments: 13
Where's bin Laden? Science may hold the answer Osama bin Laden was last seen in the Tora Bora region of Afghanistan before he fled in 2001. This is a "distance decay theory" map suggesting the likelihood that Osama bin Laden is located in a given region. The center is Tora Bora, Afghanistan, where bin Laden was last seen in public. The theory is that elusive species, and people, hide closer to their last known locale. Geographers drew circles 6.1 miles apart, a day's walking distance, over a mosaic of satellite images. They contend that the farther away from Tora Bora, the less likely it is that bin Laden is there. In addition to the map, the analysis factors in local town information, patterns of nighttime electrical use and bin Laden's known characteristics. By Dan Vergano, USA TODAY Fugitive terrorist Osama bin Laden is most likely hiding out in a walled compound in a Pakistani border town, according to a satellite-aided geographic analysis released today. A research team led by geographer Thomas Gillespie of the University of California-Los Angeles used geographic analytical tools that have been successful in locating urban criminals and endangered species. Basing their conclusion on nighttime satellite images and other techniques, the scientists suggest bin Laden may well be in one of three compounds in Parachinar, a town 12 miles from the Pakistan border. The research incorporates public reports of bin Laden's habits and whereabouts since his flight from the Tora Bora region of Afghanistan in 2001. The results, reported in the MIT International Review, are being greeted with polite but skeptical interest among people involved in the hunt for bin Laden, the al-Qaeda leader behind 9/11. Bin Laden's whereabouts are considered "one of the most important political questions of our time," the study notes. "I've never really believed the sitting-in-a-cave theory. That's the last place you would want to be bottled up," Gillespie says. The study's real value, he says, is in combining satellite records of geographic locations, patterns of nighttime electricity use and population-detection methods to produce a technique for locating fugitives. Essentially, the study generates hiding-place location probabilities. It starts with "distance decay theory," which holds that the odds are greater that the person will be found close to where he or she was last seen. Then the researchers add the "island biographic theory," which maintains that locales with more resources — palm trees for tropical birds and electricity for wealthy fugitives — are likelier to draw creatures of interest. "Island biographic theory suggests bin Laden would end up in the biggest and least isolated city of the region," Gillespie says, one among about 26 towns within a 20-mile distance of Tora Bora. "To really improve the model, you would need to include intelligence data from 2001 to 2006," Gillespie says. "It has been eight years. Honestly, I think it is time to be more open. This is a very important issue for the public." The study also makes assumptions that bin Laden might need: • Medical treatment, requiring electricity in an urban setting. • Security combining few bodyguards and isolation that requires a walled compound. • Tree cover to shield outdoor activities from aircraft. "Of course, it all depends on the accuracy of the information on most recent whereabouts," Gillespie says. "I assume that the military has more recent information that would change the hiding place probabilities." Says geographic-profiling expert Kim Rossmo of Texas State University in San Marcos, who has worked with the military on adapting police procedures for finding criminals to counterterrorism: "It's important to think outside the box, and this is an innovative idea worth more pursuit. However, the authors are much too certain of their conclusions. "The idea of identifying three buildings in a city of half a million — especially one in a country the authors have likely never visited — is somewhat overconfident." The researchers contacted the FBI with their findings, and USA TODAY asked Defense Department officials for reaction, before publication of the study. "The combination of physical terrain, socio-cultural gravitational factors and the physical characteristic of structures are all important factors in developing an area limitation for terror suspects," say John Goolgasian of the federal National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency in Bethesda, Md. His spy satellite agency "looks forward to reviewing the article once it is published." Gillespie is an expert on finding endangered species on remote islands, typically birds. A co-author, UCLA's John Agnew, is an expert on satellite-based population estimates. The study grew out of an undergraduate seminar on applying geographic profiling to real-world problems. "We are all wondering where bin Laden is hiding," Gillespie says. "We just wanted to offer the techniques we have to help."
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#1. To: Jethro Tull (#0)
(Edited)
Why don't they get OJ to help?
Make awkward sexual advances, not war. Oh, Citizen Tull, I can't begin to describe my disappointment in you. Everyone knows that USAma bin Laden is hiding in his fleet of invisible, nuclear- armed, Muslim mystery ships anchored off the shoals of Nova Scotia less than 30 minutes away from launching an attack on us which will have a mushroom cloud over every single Uhhmerkkin city with a population over 2,500. Or was that 30 seconds? Well nevermind, I'm afraid that I'm going to have to put you on Bozo and block all of your anti- semitic and un-Uhhmerkkin ravings. Now, where did I leave my well-worn little black book of tattle-tale hotline numbers?
ask the CIA
Oh, hell, ask me. Chitral. A large valley in the North of Pakistani Kashmir. Why the hell would he hide somewhere where it's hot. It's like the drunk looking for keys under the streetlight when he lost them in the dark parking lot. That's what the US is doing. No one's doing anything in Chitral. He's been protected but good. And I can safely surmise it's no damn cave, but a nice place probably paid with by US dollars, all that aid to Pakistan.....
Banking was conceived in iniquity and was born in sin. The bankers own the earth. Take it away from them, but leave them the power to create money, and with the flick of the pen they will create enough deposits to buy it back again. However, take it away from them, and all the great fortunes like mine will disappear and they ought to disappear, for this would be a happier and better world to live in. But, if you wish to remain the slaves of bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, let them continue to create money. ~~ Tim Ossman Barry Soweto So many names, it is so darned confusing. I guess I'll just "TRUST" my DEAR LEADERS...
Check Waxman's nose for Osama....I repeat....check Waxman's nose for Osama. Over and out.
Now, where did I leave my well-worn little black book of tattle-tale hotline numbers? LOL!
According to Dan Rather, Osama was in a Pakistan hospital on Dec 10, 2001, receiving dialysis. He was probably never at Tora Bora. And yeah, only the CIA knows for sure.
ask the CIA Better yet - ask Mossad. I still think given that he is, by Talmudic Law as the son of a Jewish Mother, Jewish that the most likely hidey-hole is the one that those who are steeped in the media hurdy gurdy would think least likely - Israel. After all that is where his mother lives.
""I think the subject which will be of most importance politically is Mass Psychology...It's importance has been enormously increased by the growth of modern methods of propaganda...Although this science will be diligently studied, it will be rigidly confined to the governing class. The populace will not be allowed to know how its convictions were generated." Bertrand Russel, Eugenicist and Logician
I still think given that he is, by Talmudic Law as the son of a Jewish Mother, Jewish that the most likely hidey-hole is the one that those who are steeped in the media hurdy gurdy would think least likely - Israel. After all that is where his mother lives. You win the prize, OI. And who would dare to bring armed force to check caves and caverns in Tel Aviv?
Thanks. Yes, who is going to send an Expeditionary Force to Tel Aviv? Certainly not Oboingo. It is sort of like Hawthorne's "Purloined Letter" - hiding in plain sight. Given the constant deluge of disinformation in the media no one who relies upon the Major Mediawhores would even thing it possible. After all the Telly didn't tell them that so it can't possibly be true. :-(
""I think the subject which will be of most importance politically is Mass Psychology...It's importance has been enormously increased by the growth of modern methods of propaganda...Although this science will be diligently studied, it will be rigidly confined to the governing class. The populace will not be allowed to know how its convictions were generated." Bertrand Russel, Eugenicist and Logician
Wud - another set of numbers for you. Look at the time stamp on the Post I made that Scrapper is responding to and then look at the time stamp on her post.
""I think the subject which will be of most importance politically is Mass Psychology...It's importance has been enormously increased by the growth of modern methods of propaganda...Although this science will be diligently studied, it will be rigidly confined to the governing class. The populace will not be allowed to know how its convictions were generated." Bertrand Russel, Eugenicist and Logician
Yes, that's curious thank you.
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#2. To: Jethro Tull (#0)
(Edited)
Mike Flaherty: Yeah, it's been there a long time. I wish I knew which corner.
My Man Godfrey (1936)
#3. To: Jethro Tull (#0)
"We are all wondering where bin Laden is hiding,"
#4. To: Christine (#3)
Sir Josiah Stamp, in 1927 the 2nd richest man in England, and former head of The Bank of England
#5. To: Jethro Tull (#0)
#6. To: Lysander_Spooner, Esso, critter, Christine, all (#5)
(Edited)
#7. To: Esso (#2)
Or was that 30 seconds? Well nevermind, I'm afraid that I'm going to have to put you on Bozo and block all of your anti- semitic and un-Uhhmerkkin ravings.
#8. To: Jethro Tull (#0)
#9. To: Christine (#3)
"We are all wondering where bin Laden is hiding,"
#10. To: Original_Intent (#9)
Better yet - ask Mossad.
#11. To: scrapper2 (#10)
(Edited)
You win the prize, OI. And who would dare to bring armed force to check caves and caverns in Tel Aviv?
#12. To: scrapper2, Wudidiz (#10)
#13. To: Original_Intent (#12)
"It is like a trance. So what can break a trance? The only thing that can break the trance is the light of truth."
~ Canadian Philosopher John McMurtry as he comments on the psychological warfare that has afflicted us all
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