the biggest recession risk is disorderly rise in credit spreads & corporate deleveraging."

A better indicator of what we can expect the economy to do is prices of silver mining stocks.

My old man had 100 shares of Silver Standard Resources (SSRI) I sold it to raise some cash. When he found out the price he was afraid we were headed into a recession. That was several years ago. The sale price was just above $11 per share. Now it is priced at over $14. ;)