In the second of a three-part series, Agha Hussein investigates how developments in Syria correspond to an ongoing Iran-Russia rivalry.
Rivals of the West in their own right, Iran and Russia today are major power players in the Syrian imbroglio. Their convergence of interests in helping eradicate extremist terrorist proxies utilized by an array of rival states against their mutual Syrian ally has allowed them both a significant degree of say in Syrian affairs and how that country’s future will pan out
However, their cooperation against the terrorist threat has often been the pivot of inaccurate portrayals of Russia-Iran ties and the extent of their shared interests versus their many highly divergent objectives in Syria, many of which are rooted in events and policies predating the beginning of the war there in 2011. With a proper look at ground realities in Syria and the overall shifting alignments of foreign actors involved there, the profoundly divergent intentions and views of Russia and Iran regarding that country’s reconstruction phase and its future become readily divergent.
One flashpoint of this brewing diplomatic conflict is Syria’s Latakia Port. Explored in the first installment of this series, the port was leased by Iran in a move that Russia feels directly threatens its military and economic dominance over Syria. Russia has its own military presence in Latakia, home to the Russian-controlled Hmeim Airbase and the Russian-operated Tartus Port. To complicate the matter further, Baniyas Port, located between Latakia and Tartus, is also being strategically used by Iran.
The threat that Iran poses to Russian military dominance in Latakia was explained in an April 2019 Asia Times report by Sami Moubayed, a Syrian historian and writer based in Damascus. Moubayed elaborates:
Iran could ‘could limit and possibly obstruct Russian surveillance and intelligence gathering, jam their radio-electronic technology, and jeopardize Russian air-defenses, aircraft, and the lives of military personnel”
Moubayed also cited a 2017 incident in which an Iranian request to the Syrian government for 1,000 hectares of land in Tartus city which was to be used to build an oil and gas port was “nixed” by Russia due to its proximity to Russian military facilities. Moubayed adds that Russia, ostensibly by leveraging its influence with Damascus, also made sure that an Iranian request for 5,000 hectares of land near Damascus International Airport for agricultural use was rejected as well.
Russian efforts to curb Iran’s strategic depth in Syria predate more recent efforts by Gulf Arab states toward the same end. Setting aside a mutual desire to eradicate terrorists on the ground, Russia and Iran’s plans for Syria diverge greatly.
Russia’s desire to see sanctions on Syria lifted is shared by Iran, yet its vision for a sanctions-free Syria is sharply antagonistic to Iran’s. Russia wants to see Syria become economically integrated with the Gulf Arab states in the GCC, who it seeks to see out-do the deals and contracts Iran has already procured from Damascus.
According to a December 2019 article by Igor Matveev for Al-Monitor, the former head of the Trade and Economic Division of the Russian Embassy in Damascus announced large investments linking Russia’s Tartus Port in Syria to the Gulf Arab coast via a new railway.
Matveev added that Russia has been strongly encouraging GCC and EU investments in Syria while eagerly welcoming any prospect for the lifting of sanctions which, in turn, would allow a broader range of Russian companies to enter the Syrian market. He also mentioned that Russian companies active in Syria have been competing with Iran for participation in Syria’s reconstruction since before sanctions were even imposed.
Even viewed purely from a financial-economic perspective and sans broader strategic-military interests as will be explored in the following sections of this installment, Russian preference for GCC and Western economic involvement in Syria makes it stand out as a rival to Iran. This is because of what Matveev describes as a split between ‘wartime entrepreneurs who benefit from Iranian projects and their rivals, traditionally parties aligned with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, other Arab Gulf monarchies, Lebanon and the West’.
The Israel Factor
As predicted by this author in January 2019, Russia and the GCC together with Israel will function as a trio in challenging Iran and its Resistance infrastructure in Syria, a plan complimented by Russia’s own greatly ramped-up defense and trade ties with the GCC since 2017. Russia, whose export earnings are boosted by U.S. sanctions on oil-and-gas competitor Iran, also pulled major Russian corporations out of the Iranian market after U.S. sanctions were reimposed on Iran in late 2018.
These well-timed moves connected directly to Russia’s desire to see Syria align itself with its Gulf Arab neighbors instead of the Iranian-led Resistance. Russia’s propping up of Saudi Arabia at a time when the Saudis are struggling with their disastrous Yemen War and recent thawing of relations with Washington is directly relevant to its refusal to stand by Iran in practice and not just vague rhetoric.
Matveev recognizes Iran’s attempts to create an uninterrupted land-link from Iran through Iraq, Syria and into Lebanon as well as its economic projects in Syria, as prime Israeli – and by extension U.S. – targets. He describes Russia as a plausible partner in seeking to counter these designs.
In a 19 January 2020 article for the Arab Weekly, Moubayed recalled a situation in 2018 when Russia deployed its military police near the Israeli-Syrian border as a “guarantee” to Israel following the latter’s complaints that a purely Syrian Arab Army-patrolled area would allow a Hezbollah comeback. The Russian Defense Ministry later confirmed that the deployment came in response to a direct Israeli request. Israel’s characteristic hubris, where it sought to declare where Hezbollah had the right to move inside of Syrian territory, where it was invited assist it with the war against Israel-supported terrorists, was thus accommodated by Russia. The Russian military police would seek to ensure Hezbollah stayed far from Israel, who, notably, refuses to finalize its own international borders and constantly seeks expansion.
Suffice to say, despite Russia presenting itself as an arbitrator in Syria and attempting to portray its countering of Iran as ‘de-militarization’ between enemy states in Syria, Moscow has done little about Israel’s continued unilateral aggression. It has, however, continued with the ‘contain Iran’ policy.
The ‘contain Iran’ pursuit penetrates Syria’s military
Another aspect of the ‘contain Iran’ strategy pursued by Israel, again with Gulf Arab countries playing second fiddle, is the goal to weaken ties between senior Syrian and Iranian military-intelligence cadres by altering the very structure of the Syrian military.
Moscow-based geopolitical analyst Andrew Korybko pointed out in October 2018 that a consensus was beginning to form among Kremlin-funded think tanks that Iran’s influence over Syria’s military had to be curbed. Placing in this context an erstwhile Russian Defence Ministry pact with Syria to train Syrians for free in Russian cadet colleges, Korybko described Iran’s continued presence in Syria (central to the functioning of the Resistance infrastructure described in detail in the previous installment of this series) as clashing with Russia’s vision of a post-war Syria. That vision, Korybko claims, includes multiple stakeholders, including Israel, despite its evidently nefarious designs for Syria.
Examples of Russia’s catering to intrusive Israeli demands vis a vis Syria’s military arose soon enough. In a July 2019 article for Al-Monitor, a non-resident expert at the state-funded Russian International Affairs Council, Anton Mardasov, described the situation leading to the July 7 removal from his post of General Jamil Hassan, the head of Syria’s Air Force Intelligence Directorate, as a clash of interests with Russia. General Hassan had apparently refused to accept certain Israeli demands, drawing the ire of his Russian counterparts.
In fact, as Mardasov states, a meeting mediated by Russia and led by General Hassan was conducted a month prior between Israeli and Syrian officers. Russian commanders were present at the meeting and supported Israeli demands to move ‘pro-Iranian militias’ further from the Israel-Syria border and for the incorporation of the 5th Assault Corps, formed in 2016 under Russian guidance to incorporate former anti-government rebels into the Syrian military. General Hassan is quoted as angrily ending the meeting after proclaiming Iran “the true partner of the Syrians.” Putin Assad
Putin, right, and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, right, listen to Assad, during a meeting in Damascus, Syria, Jan. 7, 2020. Alexei Druzhinin | Sputnik | AP
The push to replace senior Syrian officials with ones lacking any affinity or connection to Iran resulted in several major reshuffles in 2018, with the Russian influence behind Damascus’ choices evident. Damascus would, after all, not make changes seen as unfavorable by Iran without its powerful ally Russia not leveraging it to do so.
The story follows an earlier report by the Syrian military-connected al-Masdar News which cited a source in Damascus as stating that the pressure to remove General Hassan likely “comes at the request of Saudi Arabia, who is working to build an alliance in Syria with Russia and the United Arab Emirates.”
The myth of a Russia-backed Iranian pipeline
A theory was floated years ago that the motive of the initial anti-Assad coalition in Syria was to disrupt a transnational energy project that would run through the country and invariably disrupt the geoeconomic ambitions of powerful players in the region. This idea has long formed a vital cog in the now demonstrably false narrative that Russia was backing Iran’s Resistance coalition as a bloc.
The theory held that a pipeline, allegedly Russian-backed, would deliver natural gas from Iran to the European market after crossing through Iraq and Syria. The pipeline, the theory held, earned the wrath of the GCC, the U.S. and Europe, who desired a rival pipeline that would deliver gas from Qatar, through Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria.
Iran, Iraq and Syria indeed signed a $10 billion agreement for a pipeline in July 2011, with talks for its signing reportedly going back to 2008.
The theory states that Assad chose the Iranian pipeline over the Qatari one, offered to him in 2009, because Qatar, with Western backing, sought to compete with Russia’s monopoly over the European gas market.
Unfortunately, it is based on false assumptions, a lack of historical context and misreadings of the nature of Russia’s ties with Iran. The theory also consequently obstructs the reality that certain interests opposed the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline and sought to inflict punishment upon Syria for being a part of a project so emblematic of Syria’s pro-Resistance alignment.
There is no evidence suggesting the Qatari pipeline was ever under serious consideration and bigger obstacles yet stand in the way of such a Western-GCC ‘anti-Russian’ project having been planned, let alone pitched to Assad.
Qatar does not construct land pipelines, relying instead on a large shipping fleet to carry its gas exports in liquefied form (LNG). This practice resulted from the historical opposition from Qatar’s only land neighbour, Saudi Arabia, to pipelines carrying Qatari gas. Saudi Arabia, in fact, also has a history (pre-dating the June 2017 blockade of Qatar and severing of its status as a GCC member) of opposing Qatari pipelines in general, even when used to export gas to fellow GCC members such as the UAE and Kuwait.