China is done for 2020. The Chinese government is publicly stating that there are over 35,000 confirmed infections/cases (which cannot be trusted). Boots on the ground are saying the real number of infected is much higher (with some even claiming the figure is 1.5 million infected with countless diseased bodies being cremated daily which may well just be FUD). It is without question that there are between 140-250 million Chinese citizens currently sequestered in their homes in quarantined cities and large swaths of the country are ghost towns on lockdown with nothing coming in or out. I tend to split the difference between good/bad news, but the trending news from China has not been giving me any comfort.

Every time positive news breaks (e.g. Chinese factories reopening on the 10th, number of infected in Wuhan has already peaked, disease only fatal to elderly and babies, mortality rate of infected projected to be 2%, infection survivors build lasting antibodies to combat re-infection, etc.) it is inevitably followed by reversals (e.g. factories to “voluntarily” remain closed until March 1st, Wuhan infections based on “current data” projected to peak at least two weeks out, Chinese companies attempting to cancel commodities contracts, disease affects young and healthy alike, mortality rate of infected projected to be 5%-25% and requiring non-stop oxygen supply for 2 weeks, reinfection rate high as no lasting antibodies remain after infection to combat virus, etc.). This situation is by no means contained and is still developing in real time.