Justin Amash's Libertarian candidacy may act as a spoiler – but that could help Biden

Rachel Bitecofer

Never Trump Republicans have denounced the congressman’s third-party move but its effect in 2020 is far from certain

Thu 30 Apr 2020 11.35 EDTLast modified on Thu 30 Apr 2020 11.37 EDT Shares 2 Although Justin Amash has tended to vote with Democrats since his exodus from the Republican party, he remains more conservative than 84% of House Republicans in the 116th Congress.

Although Justin Amash has tended to vote with Democrats since leaving the Republican party, he remains more conservative than 84% of House Republicans in the 116th Congress. Photograph: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

Justin Amash’s announcement that he is exploring a run for president on the Libertarian party’s ticket set off a firestorm of debate as to whether his candidacy helps or hurts Donald Trump’s re-election prospects.

With paranoia of potential “spoiler” effects running high, thebulwark.com/justin-amash-should-not-run-for- president-this-year/">Never Trump Republicans worked hard to deter Amash from running and upon his announcement, influencers in the movement like Jennifer Rubin, Bill Kristol and Tom Nichols immediately denounced his candidacy.

Their wariness is well supported by polling data, which shows www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/gen eral_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html">Biden’s consistent lead over Trump in general election head-to-head polling www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/04 /27/biden-leads-trump-2020-amid-coronavirus- concerns/3029325001/">narrows when an independent or third-party option is included. It is important to recognize that voters respond to generic independent or third-party candidate cues from their own ideological frame of reference: a progressive probably pictures a progressive candidate, a conservative, a conservative one.

It isn’t until these choices solidify into actual candidates and are presented to voters in a context that includes named party nominees that “true” third-party or independent receptivity becomes clear. The “pulling from both sides” issue from generic ballots probably distorts the attractiveness of these types of candidates.

Further complicating matters, current polling still reflects the contested and contentious Democratic party nomination process. It will take some time for Democrats to consolidate around their party’s nominee in rates comparable to Republican consolidation around Trump, which averages 90%. The inclusive head-to-head ballot test as well as www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/us/politics/trump-biden- enthusiasm-gap.html">nominee enthusiasm are still reflecting after-effects from the primary.

We also know that as the election cycle swings into action and campaign activity kicks in, some voters previously open to third- party candidates “come home”– which is why ropercenter.cornell.edu/blog/none-above-polling-and- third-party-candidates">third-party candidates tend to underperform their polled vote shares. The “coming home” effect also affects independents, www.people- press.org/2019/03/14/political-independents-who- they- are-what-they- think/">most of whom are “leaners", voters who initially say they’re independent, but when prompted with a follow-up question asking whether they are more closely aligned to one party or the other, admit to having a party preference. These voters almost always end up voting for the candidate of the party they lean towards, which is why it is possible that Biden’s large advantages on the generic ballot until now may be inflated.

In 2016, the Libertarian party pulled voters from both sides of the ideological spectrum.

Justin’s www.youtube.com/watch? v=lUSDIZTSDDg">unabashed admission to pot use endeared him to thousands of younger voters. But Amash holds policy positions that these voters may find unacceptable. His flirtation with climate denialism and stringent anti-abortion positions will probably diminish his attractiveness amo ng the small – but still significant – portion of former Obama voters that voted for Johnson in 2016. Although Amash has tended to vote with Democrats since his exodus from the Republican party, he remains more conservative than 84% of House Republicans in the 116th Congress.

Click for Full Text!

Poster Comment:

As long as Justin does not spill bong water on himself he should be ok.