The biggest factor by far will be the "unlikely voters". Those are the people who didn't vote in 2016. I presume those types to be the ones that normally don't have their heads into politics for whatever reason, but yet are, this time around inspired to go vote.

Why would they vote? Because political matters have hit close to home.

Maybe it's the rioting & looting. Maybe it's the pandemic, or maybe it's the lockdown. Maybe it's the economy. Maybe they've got a load of the CNN Trump angle and are either incensed at the mischaracterization, or they believe the mischaracterization. Maybe they were used to career politicians and now realize Trump, like them, doesn't like politics.

Lots of maybe's either way, but that's the group that will decide the election, and because they are generally non-political, predicting what they'll do might prove difficult.

I have seen huge turnouts beyond what was happening for the past 10 years. The only motivated voters are for Trump. Kamala Harris turns off voters. Biden often thinks he is running for Senate, something he has not done since 2008 when he ran for both Senate and VP.

I looked at Nevada more closely. Trump could win Nevada. I am already thinking about what happens after the elections.