Why the polls were wrong about Trump (again)

Andrew Romano, West Coast Correspondent, Yahoo News • November 4, 2020

As of Wednesday afternoon, we still don’t know for sure who the next U.S. president will be. That’s because — as expected — key states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia haven’t finished counting their votes.

But one thing is clear, even now: Pollsters systematically underestimated President Trump’s support — again. This time, they missed by an even bigger margin than in 2016. And Yahoo News was no exception; our final YouGov poll gave Democrat Joe Biden a 10-point lead.

And so even if Trump doesn’t beat Biden, he has largely beaten his pre-election polls.

The question is why almost everyone was off.

The 2020 polling error “matches the pattern of the 2016 error really well, so there really does seem to be something wrong here,” explained G. Elliott Morris, a data journalist who runs the Economist’s election forecast, during a Wednesday postmortem on the “Science of Politics” podcast. “It’s not just two random polling errors.”

President Trump at an election night party in the East Room of the White House. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Across the Rust Belt in particular, the polls and the results weren’t even close:

In Michigan, this year’s final FiveThirtyEight polling average (the most comprehensive and careful in the field) showed Biden ahead by 7.9 percentage points. The race is now on track to be decided by less than 2 points. Four years ago, Hillary Clinton led by an average of about 4 points in Michigan heading into Election Day. She lost by one-quarter of a point. That means this year’s Michigan polls were off by 6 or 7 points — and less accurate than 2016’s by something like 2 or 3.

In Wisconsin, this year’s final polling average showed Biden ahead by 8.4 percentage points. He is now on track to win by less than 1 point. Four years ago, Clinton led by an average of about 5 points in Wisconsin heading into Election Day. She lost to Trump by less than a point. That means this year’s Wisconsin polls were off by as much as 8 points — and less accurate than 2016’s by about 2.

In Ohio, this year’s final polling average showed Trump ahead by 0.8 percentage points. He is now on track to win by 8. Four years ago, Trump led by an average of 2 points in Ohio heading into Election Day. He won by 8. That means this year’s Ohio polls were off by about 7 points — and less accurate than 2016’s by about 1.

And in Iowa, this year’s final FiveThirtyEight polling average showed Trump ahead by 1.3 points. He is now on track to win by about 7. Four years ago, Trump led by an average of 3.4 points in Iowa heading into Election Day. He won by 9. That means this year’s Iowa polls were off by nearly 6 points — and just as inaccurate as 2016’s.

The list goes on.

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