Most polls you’re looking at right now are likely underestimating Republicans’ position heading into the midterm election cycle. It’s not that the polls are “wrong.” Rather, it’s that most polls at this point are asking all registered voters who they’re going to vote for in November, when it’s likely only a distinct subset of voters who will cast a ballot. The voters who will actually turn out for the fall election are likely going to be disproportionately Republican based on current polling data and history…

Dig into the [recent CNN] poll a little more, and you can see where Democrats’ problem lies, though. Our CNN poll asked respondents how enthusiastic they were about voting in this year’s election “extremely, very, somewhat, not too or not enthusiastic at all.” Among those who said they were extremely enthusiastic (24%), Republicans held a 59% to 39% lead over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot. If we expand our universe to include those who were very enthusiastic as well (43% of all voters) of all voters, Republicans were ahead 55% to 42%.

Republicans picked up 60 seats in the 2010 midterms.

Could 2022 be even bigger?