Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm

Per the @FT

: “US companies are defaulting on junk loans at the fastest rate in four years, as they struggle to refinance a wave of cheap borrowing that followed the Covid pandemic.”

This is not about weak demand. Rather, it’s the consequence of excessive borrowing by companies, and risk taking by creditors, during what many thought at the time would be “QE infinity” with artificially low interest rates for as long as it mattered.

Bravos Research @bravosresearch

History tells us something important:

Surges in money market fund assets, like today, have only occurred 3 times before:

- 2001 dot-com crash

- 2008 financial crisis

- 2020 pandemic

When cash hoarding hits these levels, trouble often follows

https://twitter.com/i/status/1871917530228691455

Cash hoarding at these levels isn’t a coincidence—it’s a signal. History shows that when fear spikes, opportunities often follow. Stay alert; the best plays are made when others hesitate.

QE Infinity @StealthQE4

This is dark and deep but it’s my biggest concern heading into 2025.

We have $7 trillion of debt that needs to be refinanced in 2025 alone and rates are now considerably higher.

I don’t know how this gets done.

https://x.com/i/status/1871971880225452176