This year’s Munich Security Conference attracted as much attention as it did 18 years ago. Back then, it was Vladimir Putin who caused an uproar; this time, it was US Vice President J.D. Vance. Though separated by nearly two decades, these two speeches share a critical theme: both challenged the transatlantic order built on the legacy of the Cold War. And in both instances, the Western establishment failed to offer a substantive response.

In 2007, Putin’s warning about NATO expansion and Western overreach was largely dismissed as the grievances of a declining power. A few voices urged caution, but the prevailing sentiment in Washington and Brussels was complacency — Russia, they believed, would ultimately fall in line. The consequences of that miscalculation are now plain for all to see.