It is open. Nope, it is closed. Wait… It is open. What? Closed again? If you are following the media reports on the Strait of Hormuz you are probably dizzy from hearing about the changing status of the Strait of Hormuz. If you think that getting a firm agreement between Iran and the US to open the Strait of Hormuz will result in an instant solution to restoring global oil reserves, think again.
Even if Iran agrees to a 60-day moratorium on charging ships entering and leaving the Persian Gulf a “usage fee” (Trump calls it a “toll”), and the moratorium starts this week, the world still faces some serious economic shocks from the disruption of Crude Oil and LNG. Crude Oil and LNG production will take time to ramp back up to the pre-Ramadan War levels. We still do not have a full assessment of the damage to the Oil and LNG infrastructure in the Gulf nations. Even if all those systems are intact and functioning — they are not — there is still the problem of having the tankers that carry the Black Gold ready to take the shipments.
The tankers, aka ships, that have been sitting idle in the warm, salty waters of the Persian Gulf for four months face months of the maintenance recovery cycle before they will be ready to get back to the task of hauling oil and LNG. An expert in this field explained it to me this way:
Oil tankers are likely to lose weeks to months depending on fouling, coating condition, and drydock access. LNG carriers are likely to lose longer because the hull problem is coupled to cargo-system and gas-management reliability.
For planning, assume crude/product tankers lose 1-3 months in the median case and 3-6 months in the heavy case. Assume newer LNG carriers lose 2-4 months and older/system-stressed LNG carriers lose 4-9+ months. Some vessels will be faster, but the market should plan for a long tail of slow, disputed, or yard-bound tonnage.
The global perspective is clear: physical movement will recover first; commercial availability will recover second; fleet efficiency will recover third. The market will separate clean, documented, charter-ready tonnage from vessels that are merely moving. The maintenance backlog will be the next bottleneck after Hormuz.
Besides the delay in getting tankers back on the high seas, there is the problem of the Middle-Distillate Inflection Point. What the hell is that? As you can see in the image at the top of this article, a barrel of oil is not like a can of Coca Cola, i.e., a consistent liquid from the top to the bottom of the can. A barrel of Oil consists of segments, with the middle-distillate portion of the barrel providing the raw material from which both diesel and jet fuel are derived. That segment is the critical fuel for the real economy because diesel runs freight, rail, agriculture, construction, and distribution, while jet fuel supports both civil aviation and military air operations.
The structural constraint at the heart of the current energy crunch is the refinery barrel itself. Military jet fuel (JP-8) and civilian diesel are not refined from separate barrels — they compete for the same distillate cut from every barrel processed. So if Trump orders the Pentagon to start bombing Iran again, that will trigger draw downs on stocks — assuming the ops tempo in the Gulf is sustained — and refiners will face pressure to tilt output toward JP-8, which directly squeezes the supply of diesel and civil aviation fuel. In other words, there is no free barrel; every gallon of military fuel is a gallon not available to a trucking company, a farmer, or an airline.
Of all the downstream effects, diesel tightness is the most economically dangerous and the fastest-moving. Unlike gasoline, which is a consumer cost, diesel is an input cost — embedded in every freight shipment, every food delivery, every industrial process. When diesel tightens, the price increase doesn’t stop at the pump; it cascades through supply chains and lands simultaneously on freight rates, grocery prices, manufacturing margins, and retail costs. That kind of broad-based input inflation is one of the more reliable causes of recession, because it compresses margins economy-wide while simultaneously suppressing consumer purchasing power.
This helps explain why Donald Trump pivoted so quick to support the MoU with Iran. The real allocation question is not whether to release the SPR or whether to jawbone OPEC into producing more — it is how hard to run the war. Every incremental increase in operational intensity consumes distillate that the domestic economy cannot easily replace, tightening a transmission belt that runs directly from the Strait of Hormuz into Main Street prices. The tradeoff between war intensity and economic stability is not an abstract strategic concern; it is a daily refinery scheduling decision with macroeconomic consequences.
Here is the problem: currently, the US has approximately a 30-day supply of diesel. It is estimated that somewhere between 8% (VLCC class alone) and a figure approaching 15–20% of the broader crude and product tanker fleet is either stranded or effectively withdrawn from global circulation — a supply shock to shipping capacity that compounds the underlying oil supply disruption. This means there is no ready, quick solution to fill that gap in 30 days. In fact, the delay to restore the US supply of diesel could last as long as 60 days. In short, oil is not going to flow fast enough globally to meet existing demand, which probably accounts for Trump sudden decision last week to sign the MoU with Iran. A knowledgeable expert who provided me with this information believes that we will hit the wall of diesel shortage in July.
How’s that for cheery news?
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Mortgage costs hit 2724 dollars a month up 82 percent from pre pandemic levels, It sits 72 percent higher than 2007 bubble peak.
“And an astounding 72% higher than the 2007 bubble peak.
We’ve never seen such poor housing affordability.
Incomes have not kept pace, with the typical buyer needing to spend nearly 40% of their income on payments.
This ultimately is not sustainable.
The only solution is lower prices.”
Morgan Stanley sees serious reset in U.S. housing market. New research outlines why housing affordability may never return to pre-2022 levels.
Borrowing costs briefly dipped below 6% in February, raising hopes of a housing recovery, National Association of Home Builders noted. Rates then rebounded toward 6.5%, where they have remained, and the brief affordability improvement faded before most buyers could act.
Many analysts viewed that improvement as the start of a broader recovery, but new Morgan Stanley research argues the dip was temporary.
https://citizenwatchreport.com/mortgage-costs-hit-2724-dollars-a-month-up-82-percent-from-pre-pandemic-levels-it-sits-72-percent-higher-than-2007-bubble-peak/#more-226084
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USPS grows workforce while mail volume crashes 34 percent top bosses rake in over 300k each.
First class mail dropped sharply since 2014.
Career staff count rose 9 percent in same time.
Top five leaders listed make 312k to 341k yearly.
Postmaster General Louis DeJoy made 341k.
Deputy and chiefs around 312k to 327k.
USPS lost billions last year.
Volume down one third but headcount up.
Executives get high pay while service struggles.
https://citizenwatchreport.com/usps-grows-workforce-while-mail-volume-crashes-34-percent-top-bosses-rake-in-over-300k-each/#more-226144
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Fights are breaking out inside stores across France as shoppers try to buy fans and air conditioners
France faces intense heatwave with record highs above 40C.
Shoppers rush stores for fans and portable air conditioners.
Videos show physical fights and crowds pushing in aisles.
Only 25 percent of homes have AC compared to higher rates elsewhere.
Authorities activate highest health alert level.
Panic buying empties shelves fast.
Scenes look like Black Friday in multiple cities.
Heat strains power and daily life.
https://x.com/Breaking911/status/2070276551107575890 Watch on X
https://citizenwatchreport.com/fights-are-breaking-out-inside-stores-across-france-as-shoppers-try-to-buy-fans-and-air-conditioners-video/
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Thousands of migrants flee South Africa ahead of anti-immigrant protests
Thousands of migrants are fleeing South Africa amid a wave of xenophobic violence and ahead of planned anti-immigrant protests on June 30. Malawi, Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Ghana, and Mozambique are repatriating citizens following a wave of xenophobic violence, with many camping outside consular offices.
RESPECT AMERICA OR GO!
Millions warned to brace for blackouts as extreme wildfire threat sweeps across nine states: 'Particularly dangerous situation'
By STACY LIBERATORE, US SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY EDITOR, dailymail.co.uk
Millions of Americans have been warned to prepare for possible power outages as a sprawling outbreak of extreme fire weather threatens nine states this weekend.
The National Weather Service (NWS) offices from Arizona to Alaska have issued Red Flag Warnings, citing a volatile combination of powerful winds, bone-dry air and tinderbox conditions that could allow any spark to explode into a fast-moving wildfire.
The warnings affect parts of Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah and Alaska.
In some areas, forecasters warned that gusts could reach 55mph while humidity levels plunge as low as five percent.
Officials said the conditions are so severe that parts of Utah have been placed under a rare 'Particularly Dangerous Situation' designation, with residents urged to prepare emergency kits and know their evacuation routes.
The dangerous fire weather outbreak begins Friday and intensifies over the weekend, with most Red Flag Warnings taking effect between Friday morning and Saturday morning and lasting through Sunday evening in some areas.
Forecasters cautioned that downed power lines could ignite new fires and trigger blackouts. Residents are being urged to avoid outdoor burning, refrain from using equipment that could create sparks and have multiple ways to receive emergency alerts.
Officials said the threat to life and property is significant and cautioned that safe and timely evacuations may not be possible if a wildfire rapidly approaches.
https://www.dailymail.com/sciencetech/article-15933515/wildfire-blackouts-warning-arizona-california-utah.html
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Michael Saylor Responds To Scrutiny As Strategy Shares & STRC Hit 52-Week Lows
“Volatility tests every capital structure...”
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/michael-saylor-responds-scrutiny-strategy-shares-strc-hit-52-week-lows
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Volkswagen CEO Plans 100,000 Job Cuts In Generational Overhaul
"... must undergo profound change"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/volkswagen-ceo-plans-100000-job-cuts-generational-overhaul
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American Benevolence During World Cup Erases Anti-American Propaganda
Authored by Armando Simon via AmericanThinker.com,
The World Cup, as everyone knows by now, has been taking place across several cities in stadiums that have surprised foreign visitors by being gigantic and air-conditioned. As usual, fans have been having a lot of fun. Many of the visitors have come to the United States for the first time.
Social media has been filled with countless postings from visitors relating their experiences in this country.
Overwhelmingly, they are blown away by the abundance of food, both in restaurants and in grocery stores, not just in amount but in variety (e.g., the dozens and dozens of varieties of coffee, or cereal, or snacks).
They have been likewise overwhelmed by the size of everything, from onions to sandwiches to steaks to stores to cars.
They found refreshing the unashamed patriotism, evident by all the flags.
The availability of fireworks to be bought by anyone was surprising. As with the wide variety of food, wildlife, and cars/trucks, they are shocked at the variety of climate, whereas they come from areas that are uniform in climate. They keep repeating how well Americans have it here -- even the health-care system was praised.
Some sampled firing guns in gun ranges (but they should be careful in returning home; last year, someone who did so was arrested by the British Stasi). They openly stated that we have more freedom than they have in their country.
Visitors found that Americans welcomed them with open arms, sometimes even giving them free rides, drinks, or food.
The Scots, in particular, made such a splash in Boston that Scotland was threatened that we were going to keep them here; one woman responded that if we did, then we had to send over an equal number of Texas cowboys.
Significantly, the visitors have also revealed that the anti-American propaganda they’ve been subjected to for years has been lying to them. About the country. And about the people.
Sound familiar?
One month has washed away years of anti-American propaganda.
As for American liberals, with their hatred of the U.S. and of its people, some appear to be having a nervous breakdown.
Some have even cried.
American woman had a full meltdown after a European turists to America started enthusiastically praising the greatness of the country. She visibly hated hearing it.
This is the direct fruit of decades of left-wing indoctrination that has conditioned many Americans to hate their own country.
https://x.com/ImMeme0/status/2066532657370996839 Watch on X
It has been drilled into their heads that hating one’s country is the height of intellectual achievement.
This constant praise of America by non-Americans!
And by Europeans, whom they have always told are superior to Americans and whom we should all admire!
A few liberals have ineffectually tried to stem the tsunami of goodwill.
While feeling so intellectually superior for hating their country, they lack the intelligence and self-awareness to realize they have been brainwashed.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/american-benevolence-during-world-cup-erases-anti-american-propaganda
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Frontier worker taunts passenger over 25 dollar fee and blocks him from flight while repeating the same line.
Frontier Airlines worker refuses to let a man check in for his flight, then taunts him as he rushes to avoid missing it
Man: “I paid for a ticket.”
Worker: “You didn't pay $25 for an agent assist fee. Hello? And you thought you was gonna get on your flight.” She repeatedly says the last line as the man tries to make his flight
https://x.com/LoudOutside/status/2070311206930313615 Watch on X
This has a happy ending. The worthless blacks were fired.
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This is a farmer who tried to talk about data centers in the USA.
(He was arrested for trying to speak,)
https://x.com/receipts_lol/status/2070272441432072664 Watch on X
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BREAKING: IRAN RETALIATES AFTER U.S. BOMBING - w/ Fmr. CIA Larry Johnson
(Larry Johnson said the US Army is pulling out of the Mideast leaving Israel on its own.))
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAhFO9EwANI
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