India under Modi, an essential cog in US strategy, gets cozy with China and Russia
It all started with the Vladimir Putin–Xi Jinping summit in Moscow on June 5. Far from a mere bilateral, this meeting upgraded the Eurasian integration process to another level. The Russian and Chinese presidents discussed everything from the progressive interconnection of the New Silk Roads with the Eurasia Economic Union, especially in and around Central Asia, to their concerted strategy for the Korean Peninsula.
A particular theme stood out: They discussed how the connecting role of Persia in the Ancient Silk Road is about to be replicated by Iran in the New Silk Roads, or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). And that is non-negotiable. Especially after the Russia-China strategic partnership, less than a month before the Moscow summit, offered explicit support for Tehran signaling that regime change simply won’t be accepted, diplomatic sources say. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left) hug during their meeting before a session of the Heads of State Council of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left) hug during their meeting before a session of the Heads of State Council of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. Support Russia Insider - Go Ad-Free!
Putin and Xi solidified the roadmap at the St Petersburg Economic Forum. And the Greater Eurasia interconnection continued to be woven immediately after at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Bishkek, with two essential interlocutors: India, a fellow BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and SCO member, and SCO observer Iran.
At the SCO summit we had Putin, Xi, Narendra Modi, Imran Khan and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani sitting at the same table. Hanging over the proceedings, like concentric Damocles swords, were the US-China trade war, sanctions on Russia, and the explosive situation in the Persian Gulf.
Rouhani was forceful – and played his cards masterfully – as he described the mechanism and effects of the US economic blockade on Iran, which led Modi and leaders of the Central Asian “stans” to pay closer attention to Russia-China’s Eurasia roadmap. This occurred as Xi made clear that Chinese investments across Central Asia on myriad BRI projects will be significantly increased.
Russia-China diplomatically interpreted what happened in Bishkek as “vital for the reshaping of the world order.” Crucially, RIC – Russia-India-China – not only held a trilateral but also scheduled a replay at the upcoming Group of Twenty summit in Osaka. Diplomats swear the personal chemistry of Putin, Xi and Modi worked wonders.
The RIC format goes back to old strategic Orientalist fox Yevgeny Primakov in the late 1990s. It should be interpreted as the foundation stone of 21st-century multipolarity, and there’s no question how it will be interpreted in Washington.
India, an essential cog in the Indo-Pacific strategy, has been getting cozy with “existential threats” Russia-China, that “peer competitor” – dreaded since geopolitics/geo-strategy founding father Halford Mackinder published his “Geographical Pivot of History” in 1904 – finally emerging in Eurasia.
RIC was also the basis on which the BRICS grouping was set up. Moscow and Beijing are diplomatically refraining from pronouncing that. But with Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro seen as a mere Trump administration tool, it’s no wonder that Brazil has been excluded from the RIC summit in Osaka. There will be a perfunctory BRICS meeting right before the start of the G20 on Friday, but the real deal is RIC. Pay attention to the go-between
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The internal triangulation of RIC is extremely complex. For instance, at the SCO summit Modi said that India could only support connectivity projects based on “respect of sovereignty” and “regional integrity.” That was code for snubbing the Belt and Roads Initiative – especially because of the flagship China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which New Delhi insists illegally crosses Kashmir. Yet India did not block the final Bishkek declaration.
What matters is that the Xi-Modi bilateral at the SCO was so auspicious that Indian Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale was led to describe it as “the beginning of a process, after the formation of government in India, to now deal with India-China relations from both sides in a larger context of the 21st century and of our role in the Asia-Pacific region.” There will be an informal Xi-Modi summit in India in October. And they meet again at the BRICS summit in Brazil in November.
Putin has excelled as a go-between. He invited Modi to be the guest of honor at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok in early September. The thrust of the relationship is to show to Modi the benefits for India to actively join the larger Eurasia integration process instead of playing a supporting role in a Made in USA production.
That may even include a trilateral partnership to develop the Polar Silk Road in the Arctic, which represents, in a nutshell, the meeting of the Belt and Road Initiative with Russia’s Northern Sea Route. China Ocean Shipping (Cosco) is already a partner of the Russian company PAO Sovcomflot, shipping natural gas both east and west from Siberia.
Xi is also beginning to get Modi’s attention on the restarting possibilities for the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCMI) corridor, another major Belt and Road project, as well as improving connectivity from Tibet to Nepal and India.
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Impediments, of course, remain plentiful, from disputed Himalayan borders to, for instance, the slow-moving Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) – the 16-nation theoretical successor of the defunct Trans-Pacific Partnership. Beijing is adamant the RCEP must go into overdrive, and is even prepared to leave New Delhi behind.
One of Modi’s key decisions ahead is on whether to keep importing Iranian oil – considering there are no more US sanctions waivers. Russia is ready to help Iran and weary Asian customers such as India if the EU-3 continue to drag the implementation of their special payment vehicle.
India is a top Iran energy customer. Iran’s port of Chabahar is absolutely essential if India’s mini-Silk Road is to reach Central Asia via Afghanistan. With US President Donald Trump’s administration sanctioning New Delhi over its drive to buy the Russian S-400 air defense system and the loss of preferred trade status with the US, getting closer to Bridge and Road – featuring energy supplier Iran as a key vector – becomes a not-to-be-missed economic opportunity.
With the roadmap ahead for the Russia-China strategic partnership fully solidified after the summits in Moscow, St Petersburg and Bishkek, the emphasis now for RC is to bring India on board a full-fledged RIC. Russia-India is already blossoming as a strategic partnership. And Xi-Modi seemed to be in sync. Osaka may be the geopolitical turning point consolidating RIC for good.
#1: Cynicom To: Ada (#0)
Cynicom posted on 2019-06-29 10:22:53 Reply Private Reply
#2: Horse To: Ada (#0)
Horse posted on 2019-06-29 11:00:24 Reply Private Reply
#3: Ada To: Horse, Cynicom (#2)
Ada posted on 2019-06-29 11:12:42 Reply Private Reply
#4: BTP Holdings To: Ada (#0)
India has their own problems to deal with and that is basically the Pakistani's.
Both are nuclear armed and if a war is touched off between them it could be enough to cause a nuclear winter. ;)
BTP Holdings posted on 2019-06-29 11:15:24 Reply Private Reply
#5: BTP Holdings To: Ada (#3)
Both are exporters to the U.S. and other regions so the competition runs deep. ;)
BTP Holdings posted on 2019-06-29 11:17:44 Reply Private Reply
#6: NeoconsNailed To: Ada (#0)
NeoconsNailed posted on 2019-06-29 12:17:36 Reply Private Reply
#7: BTP Holdings To: NeoconsNailed (#6)
Not so sure how perpetually insane and hostile the behavior might be.
We must go back to Reagan to see the roots of this. ;)
www.historyonthenet.com/reagan-doctrine
BTP Holdings posted on 2019-06-29 12:28:41 Reply Private Reply
#8: Cynicom To: Ada (#3)
By 2050 India will surpass China with largest population.
Russia is largest country in the world with very small population.
Russia is the holder of huge reserves of natural resources.
India and China have very limited natural resources.
Anyone trying to envision a marriage between any two is bereft of history and Geo/politics.
Cynicom posted on 2019-06-29 13:39:48 Reply Private Reply
#9: titorite To: Cynicom (#8)
Human power alone by the numbers IS a resource.
titorite posted on 2019-06-29 15:28:56 Reply Private Reply
#10: BTP Holdings To: titorite, Cynicom (#9)
Cyni is spot on about this subject.
And remember the pyramids were not built in a day either. They had to have the use of something other than mechanical means to move such large blocks of stone. ;)
BTP Holdings posted on 2019-06-29 16:12:22 Reply Private Reply
#11: titorite To: BTP Holdings (#10)
Im not war hawk person i see the truth in history for what it is.
titorite posted on 2019-06-29 16:19:43 Reply Private Reply
#12: Horse To: BTP Holdings, NeoconsNailed, Ada, Lod (#5)
Horse posted on 2019-06-29 16:32:22 Reply Private Reply
#13: FormerLurker To: Cynicom (#1)
You appear to think the only solution to a problem is war. You see Cyni, some people can actually reach agreements and honor them without sanctions placed upon them or the sound of bombs hitting their targets.
We are the only major country in the world in the 21st century to use force or threat of force as a negotiation tactic.
Perhaps that's the only thing you know as well, and have never considered statesmanship and mutual respect to be worthy of anything.
FormerLurker posted on 2019-06-29 16:37:30 Reply Private Reply
#14: BTP Holdings To: FormerLurker (#13)
Trump and Putin talked for 80 minutes, and that is a good thing.
I know a Russian girl who was here to learn to be a pharmacist. She went back to Russia to get her inheritance. She is using me as her finacee and telling them I am unable to travel, which is true. She said she would teach me Russian. That remains to be seen. Maybe I will see her at some point in the near future. ;)
BTP Holdings posted on 2019-06-29 18:11:14 Reply Private Reply
#15: BTP Holdings To: Horse (#12)
How do you know if they want or need widgets over there? ;)
BTP Holdings posted on 2019-06-29 18:13:03 Reply Private Reply
#16: Horse To: BTP Holdings (#15)
Horse posted on 2019-06-29 18:21:58 Reply Private Reply
#17: BTP Holdings To: Horse (#16)
There is not nearly enough gold around to pay for the Trillions of Dollars the U.S. imports every year. Maybe this is why China is accumulating as much gold as they can. China wants to release a 40% gold backed Yuan. If this happens the Dollar will turn to dust.
It might also be the reason the IMF has relocated from Dee Cee to Beijing. It also signals the end of Bretton Woods. ;)
BTP Holdings posted on 2019-06-29 19:24:25 Reply Private Reply
#18: Lod To: FormerLurker (#13)
Thanks for the key take-away to this entire thread.
Lod posted on 2019-06-29 19:29:18 Reply Private Reply
#19: BTP Holdings To: FormerLurker, Cynicom (#13)
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Cyni, didn't you have your finger on the nuclear trigger during the Korean War when you were in the Air Force? ;)
BTP Holdings posted on 2019-06-29 19:35:23 Reply Private Reply
#20: Cynicom To: BTP Holdings (#19)
Our target was Vladivostok.
Geo/politics...Our target before Korea was Vladivostok, Koreans invaded, target remained the same. China came into the fight, target remained the same. War ended, target remained the same.
Cynicom posted on 2019-06-29 21:55:57 Reply Private Reply
#21: BTP Holdings To: Cynicom (#20)
I see your point. Vladivostok was a major Naval port for the Soviets and the Russians before them. I wrote this before I looked it up for confirmation. ;)
en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Pacific_Fleet_%28Russia%29
BTP Holdings posted on 2019-06-29 22:16:45 Reply Private Reply
#22: NeoconsNailed To: Horse (#12)
NeoconsNailed posted on 2019-07-10 23:56:30 Reply Private Reply
#23: Horse To: NeoconsNailed (#22)
Horse posted on 2019-07-11 00:01:14 Reply Private Reply
#24: NeoconsNailed To: Horse (#23)
NeoconsNailed posted on 2019-07-11 00:02:25 Reply Private Reply
#25: Horse To: NeoconsNailed (#24)
We also maintained the appearance of high wages by buying free stuff from overseas paying for it with I Owe You Nothing Federal Reserve Notes. It used to be 50% of American money is overseas. Now it is 60%. When foreigners go for a gold backed yuan over a dollar - $2,000 an ounce gold anyone - the Dollar Dies. Foreigners dump dollars which will only be good inside the US. We will see our Money Supply more than Double. Then we will have to buy gold before we buy cars and electronics and clothes from overseas. Wages will be cut 50% permanently or until 100 million people in America die. College administrators and professors, healthcare workers and government employees will be shocked by prices.
I also add this as over population is the cause of our woes.
Might I point out that the population of Mexico in 1950 was 28 million. Today there are 34 million Mexican Americans and 132 million people in Mexico. Solving the over population problems of Latin America, Africa, the Mideast and Asia is way beyond our ability.
Horse posted on 2019-07-11 00:28:28 Reply Private Reply
#26: NeoconsNailed To: Horse (#25)
Any chance all the money leaving the country could mitigate the inflation?
NeoconsNailed posted on 2019-07-11 00:40:08 Reply Private Reply
#27: Horse To: NeoconsNailed (#26)
No. The money will be returning which will double prices. Civil War will be profitable. Winners will take the property of the losers.
Horse posted on 2019-07-11 00:57:06 Reply Private Reply