Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via The Daily Reckoning blog,
For the past 22 years, every time the stock market whimpered, wheezed or whined, the Federal Reserve rushed to soothe the spoiled crybaby.
There are two consequential results of the Fed as savior:
1. The Fed has perfected moral hazard: everyone from the money manager betting billions to the punters gambling their stimmy money is absolutely confident I cant lose because the Fed will always push the market higher.
What happens when participants are confident they cant possibly lose? They make ever-riskier and ever-larger bets. The entire nation is in the grip of a moral hazard mania, all based on the confidence that the Fed will always push every market higheralways, without fail.
2. Organic (i.e. non-manipulated) market forces have been extinguished. There is now only one consequential force, the Fed. All markets are now 100% dependent on the Fed responding to every bleat from every punter whos recklessly risky bet is about to go bad.
The Fed is now the perfect union of quasi-religious savior and Helicopter Parent: oh dear, our little darling got high and crashed the Porsche? Quick, lets save our precious market from any consequences!
Every day, Fed speakers take to the pulpit to spew another sermon about the Feds god-like power and wisdom. The true believers soak up every word: golly-gee, the Fed is better than any god its guaranteeing I can get rich if I just leverage up any bet in any market!
With a savior like the Fed, you dont need a real economy or a real market - all you need is the assurance that the Fed will save every market from every consequence.
The Point of Diminishing Returns
All this hubris is jolly while it lasts, but since risk cannot be dissipated, it can only be transferred, the Fed has transferred decades of fast-rising risk to the entire system. The entire system now rests on the Fed, a dependency that raises its own risks.
By imposing moral hazard and crushing consequences, the Fed has stripped the entire financial system of self-correcting mechanisms. This is a surefire recipe for systemic failure and collapse.
There is no way to wean the system off its dependence on the Fed, and no way to restore organic market functions. The slightest reduction in the Feds spew of trillions will crash the market, because there is literally nothing holding it aloft but Fed spew monetary and verbal.
The problem with becoming 100% dependent on the Fed is any wobble will crash the system and diminishing returns guarantee a wobble.
The systems sensitivity to the Feds spew of trillions of dollars and claptrap preaching is diminishing, which is why the Fed has moved from spewing hundreds of billions to trillions, and why Fed speakers who we once heard from once a month are now out in force every single day.
Remarkably, few anticipate any consequence from the Feds perfection of moral hazard and the systems 100% dependence on the Feds spew even as diminishing returns gnaw away at the efficacy of the Feds ever more grandiose policies and pronouncements.
If you wanted to design a system guaranteed to collapse in a putrid heap, youd make moral hazard ubiquitous and youd make the system 100% dependent on a hubris-soaked faux savior.
Hey, that describes Americas economy and financial system perfectly. But now I want to explore something about the Fed youve probably never considered before The Feds Official and Unofficial Mandates
There are two standard-issue narratives about the Federal Reserves agenda: the Feds official narrative is that the Feds mandate is to keep inflation under control while promoting full employment.
The unofficial mandate thats obvious to all is to prop up assets, especially the stock market, which has become the Feds preferred signifier of prosperity and the rightness/goodness of Fed policies.
The other narrative results from following the money: the Fed is owned by private-sector banks, and so behind the curtain of happy-talk (full employment, blah-blah-blah), the Feds only real agenda is to further enrich banks and too big to fail/jail financiers something it has managed to do with remarkable success.
That the Fed inflated the 1999-2000 dot-com bubble and the 2005-2008 housing bubble is undeniable, as is the Feds 2008-09 bailout of the global financial system and too big to fail/jail mortgage originators and a vast array of other profiteering, embezzler-scoundrels.
The Feds zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) and unprecedented quantitative easing monetary stimulus have pushed the Fed balance sheet, federal debt and systemic debt to heights that heretofore would have been inconceivable.
While pursuing these non-mutually-exclusive agendas we came to do good and stayed to do well the Fed has generated destabilizing extremes of wealth and income inequality, a reality that the Fed laughably denies. (There must be much mirth about this BS behind closed doors.)
Allow me to posit a third agenda which doesnt negate either conventional agenda but does explain some of the Feds actions since 2008 The Feds Real Mandate
As the system unravels, the Feds primary imperative is to save the financial system and economy from the greed-soaked incompetence of the other players, public and private, by taking charge of critical swaths of the financial system and economy.
After the subprime debacle almost took down the entire global financial system, the Fed (with a bit of help from Congress) essentially took over the entire $10 trillion U.S. mortgage market.
Private-sector lenders had figured out how to issue guaranteed-to-default mortgages and pass off the fraudulent mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to a global cast of suckers who believed Americas financial system was properly regulated. (Haha, the jokes on you.)
In response, the Fed basically nationalized the mortgage market, buying more than $1 trillion in mortgage-backed securities and ensuring that virtually all mortgages in the U.S. were guaranteed or originated by federal agencies: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (after their bankruptcy as quasi-private agencies), FHA and VA.
More recently, the Fed realized the private broker-dealer banks that handle the all-important issuance of Treasury bonds could no longer be trusted.
As analyst Christopher Whalen explains, The Feds primary concern is not employment or inflation, but rather keeping the market for Treasury securities functioning.
In response, the Fed is cutting the broker-dealers out as unreliable players. The Treasury market and the U.S. dollar are the foundations of federal spending and power, and so the Fed has realized that, just as it did with the fraudulent embezzlers of the private-sector mortgage market, it has to bypass or neuter the private-sector players as threats to stability.
Next up on the Feds agenda: take charge of the issuance of new money to households and cut Congress out of the loop.
Money Directly From the Fed
If you read up on the Feds plans for its own digital currency and the FedNow system, youll come to understand that the Fed has concluded that supporting consumption (i.e. giving money to households to enable more spending) is too important to leave in the corrupt hands of the legislative bodies (Congress) or the Treasury, which must issue debt to raise cash to distribute to households, debt that further burdens federal revenues and spending.
We cant count on you, broker-dealers or Congress, so were taking charge, as the system is now so over-extended that any misadventure by other players could well be catastrophic. The only alternative from the Feds point of view is to take charge and cut the untrustworthy, self-serving incompetents out of the loop.
So the Feds plan is to create new money out of thin air and deposit it directly in household accounts via the FedNow system.
The danger of this power grab is that the Fed will misjudge the situation, and that will prove catastrophic because the system has been stripped of resilience, feedback and redundancy.
I suspect the Fed sees itself as trapped by the incompetence and greed of the other players and by its own policy extremes that were little more than expedient saves of a system that is unraveling due to its fragility and brittleness.
The groundwork is being laid for the Feds digital currency and direct deposits to households via FedNow accounts.
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