Global Food Prices Rise Again, Hitting New Decade High

Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/global-food-prices-rise-again-hitting-new-decade-high
Published: Dec 3, 2021
Author: Tyler Durden
Post Date: 2021-12-03 02:54:27 by Horse
Views: 312

Global food inflation continues to rise for the fourth consecutive month in November, reaching levels not seen in a decade, led mainly by robust demand for wheat and dairy products, according to a new report via the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

FAO's food price index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of food commodities, rose 1.2% to 134.4 in November from October, driven by continued demand for food. The index is up 27.3% YoY.

Food prices remain at a decade high and have risen sharply since the beginning of the pandemic, driven by snarled supply chains, harvest setbacks, soaring farm costs, and high demand.

Last month, increases in grains, dairy, and sugar were the primary driver in FAO's food price index. Laggards were meat and vegetable oil.

The FAO's cereal price index averaged 141.5 points in November, up 3.1% from October and 23.2% from the same month last year. Wheat prices are at their highest level since May 2011 due to adverse weather conditions in Australia and potential changes to export rules in Russia.

The dairy price index rose 4.1% to 125.5 points in November. Compared to last year, the index is up 19.1%. "Strong global import demand persisted for butter and milk powders as buyers sought to secure spot supplies in anticipating of tightening markets," FAO said.

Sugar prices averaged 120.7 points in November, up 1.4% from October, reversing most of the previous month's decline. Compared to last year, prices are up a stunning 40%.

Vegetable oil and meat prices were slight down in November but were both up substantially over the year.

The question central banks, governments, commodity traders, and households have on their minds is when do food prices reverse. To answer that question, Judy Ganes, the president of J. Ganes Consulting, recently told Bloomberg that rising food prices should continue into the second half of 2022.

"We're not seeing a turning point just yet, we'll probably see it, my guess is the middle of next year. There's a point where high prices are the best cure for high prices, there's a point where its going to have to resolve itself," Ganes said.

She pointed out rising prices were due to a combination of factors, such as caps on migration, red hot labor market, labor shortages, adverse weather conditions, snarled supply, higher fertilizer prices, and soaring transportation costs.

Ganes said the end to several major droughts and increased rainfall in major producing regions means global food production in 2023-24 will be "much improved."

With at least another year or more of food inflation, Cargill CEO David MacLennan recently changed his mind about "transitory" inflation and now believes it will be more persistent with higher food prices in 2022. He blamed elevated food prices on snarled supply chains, labor shortages, and adverse weather conditions, among other things.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had to retire the word "transitory" regarding the inflationary environment in an embarrassing move this week. Soaring food prices are unlikely to reverse in early 2022 and are crushing emerging market consumers and the working poor in developed countries.

Almost one year ago, SocGen's Albert Edwards pointed out rising food prices would lead to discontent and social instabilities in the weakest countries.

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#1: DWornock    To: Horse (#0)

Food prices may be higher than they were a month ago but they are much lower then they were anytime in the past prior to say 1980. They may be higher in actual dollars but the dollar has already lost more than 98% of its value from 100 years ago. However, food price is the amount of time effort it takes the average person to purchase; not some arbitrary value to scrap pieces of paper and the time, and effort required to purchase food is much lower than in the past.

DWornock posted on 2021-12-03 05:26:33   Reply   Private Reply

#2: BTP Holdings    To: DWornock (#1)

Food prices may be higher than they were a month ago but they are much lower then they were anytime in the past prior to say 1980.

You are way off base on this. I cannot afford fresh beef since it is so costly. I am not sure how some elderly folks manage with the small amounts of Social Security they might get.

I get substantial SSD payments, but my Conservator keeps sticking me in the ass with the small weekly stipend I am receiving. :-/

BTP Holdings posted on 2021-12-03 07:52:36   Reply   Private Reply

#3: DWornock    To: BTP Holdings (#2)

Maybe so but that is more then 100 time $7 per month my grandmother received in the 1940s. Most people had food because half the people lived on farms and/or had gardens or could pick berries or poke salad along the roadsides. Now, even the poor are fat. Look at photos from the 1940s or even the 1950s. Very few were fat.

DWornock posted on 2021-12-04 14:16:38   Reply   Private Reply

#4: BTP Holdings    To: DWornock (#3)

Very few were fat.

When I was in High School there was this kid they called "the plug" because he was so fat.

One of the guys knocked him into the stall enclosure in the boys room and broke it on contact.

Now that was fat. ;)

BTP Holdings posted on 2021-12-04 15:28:11   Reply   Private Reply

#5: Dakmar    To: BTP Holdings (#4)

Smoking kills, right? :)

Dakmar posted on 2021-12-04 16:35:34   Reply   Private Reply

#6: BTP Holdings    To: Dakmar (#5)

We worked The Who five or six times in Chicago in late 80s and early 90s. The concerts were always at a smaller venue like The Vic Theater.

It was usually a very well behave crowd. At the end of the show Roger Daltrey would smash his guitar.

After the show they had free autograph session. Anyone that wanted autographs could get them. ;)

BTP Holdings posted on 2021-12-04 16:45:54   Reply   Private Reply

#7: Dakmar    To: BTP Holdings (#6)

I spent like six hours fighting my way through Hilton Crossing crowd trying to buy overpriced John Entwistle prints, but he was already dead.

Dakmar posted on 2021-12-04 16:55:05   Reply   Private Reply

#8: Dakmar    To: BTP Holdings (#6)

At the end of the show Roger Daltrey would smash his guitar.

Daltrey? Pete was the chief vandal!

Dakmar posted on 2021-12-04 16:58:37   Reply   Private Reply

#9: BTP Holdings    To: Dakmar (#8)

Daltrey?

Sir Roger Daltrey in now 77 years old.

I heard he came down with a case of spinal meningitis. I wonder how well he remembers the lines of all the songs he has sung in his career? :-/

You are right. Pete Townshend was the guy that smashed his guitar.

BTW, I saw a recording of The Who on the AXS channel. I sent them an email telling them, "We worked The Who 5 or 6 times in Chicago in the 80s and early 90s. The crowd was usually well behaved and they had a free autograph session after every show. Anyone that wanted an autograph could get one."

They replied, "Thanks for sharing that with us." ;)

BTP Holdings posted on 2021-12-04 19:58:31   Reply   Private Reply

#10: Dakmar    To: BTP Holdings (#9)

I have been a Who fan since I was like 9 or so, lol. Daltrey was a hoodlum, kept the rest of of the band in line because he didn't want to go back to stamping sheet metal at the furnace factory.

Meningitis...Only Rock Star I can remember, for sure, that suffered meningitis was John Lydon, aka Johnny Rotten of the Sex Pistols. I'll try to dig up some of his quotes about it, the bastard was pretty much like any of us here on 4um. God save the queen, her fascist regime, lol

Dakmar posted on 2021-12-04 20:09:46   Reply   Private Reply

#11: Dakmar    To: BTP Holdings (#9)

They replied, "Thanks for sharing that with us." ;)

Wow, no one has ever been so dispassionate about any of my emails. You should sue them, get the ACLU involved!

Dakmar posted on 2021-12-04 20:12:41   Reply   Private Reply

#12: Dakmar    To: BTP Holdings (#9)

BTW, I saw a recording of The Who on the AXS channel. I sent them an email telling them, "We worked The Who 5 or 6 times in Chicago in the 80s and early 90s. The crowd was usually well behaved and they had a free autograph session after every show. Anyone that wanted an autograph could get one."

Send me an email for my wedding...:)

Dakmar posted on 2021-12-04 20:19:25   Reply   Private Reply

#13: BTP Holdings    To: Dakmar (#12)

I knew a guy that would deliver a quarter ounce of blow to the Rolling Stones dressing room before every show.

Someone said that was just a warm up for Jagger. ;)

BTP Holdings posted on 2021-12-04 23:10:06   Reply   Private Reply