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#1: Pinguinite    To: Ada (#0)

Seems very obvious to me what Putin will do. He's already recognized Donetsk and Lugansk as independent countries, which means that as far as Russia is concerned, they are no longer part of Ukraine. Those "republics" will ask for and receive Russian military aid, so Russia will oblige and move into those two states and, if necessary, battle the "foreign" Ukrainian military invaders with help from the separatist militia which will no longer be separatists. But Russia will not go farther than those too provinces/states/republics or whatever they might be called UNLESS other states in Ukraine make similar pleas which are accepted, and that's possible in the south which is also has a majority pro-Russian sentiment.

Putin moving into western Ukraine is of no interest to Putin as his military would be in hostile territory and incur casualties that will hurt him at home, and Putin knows this so he won't do that. The civil war in Ukraine that's been running for the last 8 years will end.

The Deep State will whine and cry about it, and impose sanctions, and life will go on.

Pinguinite posted on 2022-02-21 18:06:19   Reply   Private Reply

#2: Lod    To: Pinguinite (#1)

Playing chess while Brandon is teething on a black checker.

Lod posted on 2022-02-21 18:29:51   Reply   Private Reply

#3: randge    To: Pinguinite (#1)

his military would be in hostile territory and incur casualties that will hurt him at home, and Putin knows this so he won't do that

Yessir. Putin knows better.

Only the uber-wise guys who run the "defense" establishment in the U.S. will dive into a losing proposition with both feet.

The Pentagon can soundly defeat foes like Grenada and Panama, but determined opposition on a large scale finds them up a tree.

Putin and Russia's military leaders have drawn important lessons from the Soviets' imperial past.

randge posted on 2022-02-21 20:37:24   Reply   Private Reply

#4: Pinguinite    To: randge (#3)

Putin and Russia's military leaders have drawn important lessons from the Soviets' imperial past.

That's a big problem for Putin. Stalin killed millions of Ukrainians, or so we're told today, and that's still within living memory. So Ukraine will be extra sensitive and ready to compare Putin to Stalin with any and all civilian deaths that occur. In that way, going into western Ukraine would be a huge disaster, a repeat of history that would be most unwelcome. Putin will be assertive but cautious.

Pinguinite posted on 2022-02-21 20:47:57   Reply   Private Reply

#5: randge    To: Pinguinite (#4)

I don't think such a parallel can be drawn here.

Lenin and his Bolsheviks plundered Ukraine to feed the teeming cities the communists had conquered.

It was communists that later deeded Russian western Ukraine and Russian Crimea to the government in Kyiv.

The peoples of Donetsk and Luhansk and Crimea will be happy to see the backs of Ukrainian officials, soldiers and administrators.

The rest of Ukraine is just a headache for Moscow, and I'd be more than surprised to see them probe farther west.

I hear the Russian peacekeepers arrived in Donbass in buses and trucks and not in armored tanks. Correct me if I'm wrong.

randge posted on 2022-02-21 21:23:05   Reply   Private Reply

#6: Esso    To: randge, 4um (#5)

I hear the Russian peacekeepers arrived in Donbass in busses and trucks and not in armored tanks.

Correct.

Esso posted on 2022-02-21 21:27:46   Reply   Private Reply

#7: Pinguinite    To: randge (#5)

I hear the Russian peacekeepers arrived in Donbass in buses and trucks and not in armored tanks.

But they were very evil looking trucks and buses.

Pinguinite posted on 2022-02-21 22:35:29   Reply   Private Reply

#8: Dakmar    To: Pinguinite (#7)

Assault buses.

Dakmar posted on 2022-02-22 06:46:48   Reply   Private Reply

#9: randge    To: Dakmar (#8)

Heh-heh. ; )

randge posted on 2022-02-22 10:07:42   Reply   Private Reply