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#1: Pinguinite    To: Horse (#0)

In thinking about the prospect of a dollar crash over the past several months, it occurs to me that if & when currencies collapse, they collapse with respect to something else. The German Mark collapse a century ago was a measurable collapse because of the exchange rates with other currencies. The Zimbabwe collapse was measurable in dollars. The Euro now has lost spending power because we compare it to the dollar. But in order for the dollar to collapse, it has to be compared to another currency, and I don't think gold will count because gold is not a currency.

In order for the dollar to collapse, the finance world needs to be able to flee the dollar for another currency. But what other currency is there to flee to? The finance world REQUIRES a currency to function with, even when things are going to hell. And effectively, the dollar has a monopoly on the market.

Pinguinite posted on 2022-10-26 11:53:28   Reply   Private Reply

#2: Horse    To: Pinguinite (#1)

They will collapse with respect to gold and silver. But the BRICS currencies, especially the ruble, will increase in value as it has ever since the sanctions. Gold and silver are being bid away from Europe and the US by Asia.

Horse posted on 2022-10-26 15:35:18   Reply   Private Reply

#3: Pinguinite    To: Horse (#2)

In order for the dollar to collapse, something has to replace it, and by that I mean replace it with something that can operate as a replacement currency. If someone that wants to sell their stock in XYZ company doesn't want dollars, what else is he going to accept? And it has to be something that's available, and that won't be gold or silver as they are simply not liquid currencies. His choices are a different national currency like the Euro, Pound or Yen, or maybe crypto. But if there is no better option, then that person will agree to accept dollars no matter what the financial situation is.

The world will always have a currency. The dollar won't / can't collapse unless and until something else is already available to replace it.

Pinguinite posted on 2022-10-26 16:47:04   Reply   Private Reply

#4: Esso    To: Pinguinite (#3)

If someone that wants to sell their stock in XYZ company doesn't want dollars, what else is he going to accept?

It's been my experience that equities are pretty good at tracking inflation. Not so much with PMs, but I went all-in at a really good time with the last financial crash around 2009. Maybe a little bit up considering inflation, but not a spectacular investment.

My best trade ever was doubling down on XOM near the Bidet post-election low at $40 (lowest was $34 I think). At the time, the dividend yield was over 10%, but there was some chatter about cancelling the divs back then, which is a company killer (see GM during the crash). My mother just about lost everything. I'm up about 150% on the last batch of XOM last I looked.

Today: XOM / Exxon Mobil Corp / 107.21 +0.07 (+0.07%). [near/at all-time high]

Esso posted on 2022-10-26 17:55:36   Reply   Private Reply

#5: Horse    To: Pinguinite (#3)

COMMODITIES WILL GO STRAIGHT UP WHEN THE DOLLAR DIES.

Horse posted on 2022-10-26 18:33:22   Reply   Private Reply